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從暴跌到反彈:全球銅價重啟上漲週期

經過幾個月的震盪,美國銅價(COPPER-C,Copper)近期重新走強。繼 7 月底的暴跌後,10 月開局,銅價迅速回升,市場情緒明顯改善。

7 月暴跌的原因與後續反彈

7 月的暴跌主要源於美國公布的銅關稅政策。消息公布後,美國銅進口量激增,價格短暫高於全球水平,紐約商品交易所的銅庫存也隨之升至 20 年來最高點。隨後,美國政府突然決定,將未加工銅原料,包括銅礦石和精煉銅排除在關稅清單之外,多頭頭寸集中平倉引發價格踩踏,銅價暴跌。

不過,隨著市場逐步消化這一衝擊,交易商重新增持銅頭寸,價格在低位獲得支撐。此後,美國銅價逐漸回升,重拾上漲動能。

供應中斷成為價格支撐核心

銅價的關鍵決定因素始終在供應端。近期,全球第二大銅礦格拉斯伯格發生泥石流事故,導致生產中斷。礦主麥克莫蘭銅金公司(FCX, Freeport-McMoRan)宣布啟動不可抗力條款,並下調了今年的產量預期。這起事故不僅造成工人傷亡,也加劇了市場對全球銅供應緊張的擔憂。

同時,其他主要礦山如卡莫阿-卡庫拉、科布雷巴拿馬也面臨不同程度的產能受限。儘管美國庫存依然偏高,但正在緩慢下降。市場普遍認為,供應受限足以抵消庫存壓力,為銅價構築堅實底部。

美元走弱與降息預期助推

銅的反彈並非孤立現象。近期黃金價格突破 4000 美元關口,白銀也逼近 50 美元的高位。支撐這波金屬上漲的主要因素包括:

  • 聯準會降息預期:市場普遍預期貨幣政策轉向寬鬆,有望刺激全球經濟活動。
  • 美元走弱:美元疲軟使以美元計價的大宗商品更具吸引力。
  • 避險與通膨需求:在地緣政治與通膨不確定性下,投資者增加對實物資產的配置。

在這種背景下,銅價的反彈被視為全球經濟預期改善與結構性供需錯配共同作用的結果。

電氣化與綠色轉型支撐長期需求

展望中長期,銅的前景依然被普遍看好。隨著全球電氣化與能源轉型加速,以及 AI 浪潮的推動,銅在可再生能源、電動汽車、儲能設備、AI 數據中心與基礎設施中的需求將持續增長。

  • 電動車與充電網絡:電動汽車電機與充電樁對銅的依賴遠高於傳統燃油車。
  • 能源轉型:太陽能、風能電網建設都離不開銅線與導體材料。
  • AI 與算力基礎設施:預計未來十年,新建數據中心年均銅需求約 40 萬噸,並將在 2028 年達峰至 57.2 萬噸,成為支撐 AI 時代的重要原料。

因此,銅的戰略地位愈發突出,長期旺盛的需求將支撐銅價維持高位運行。

銅價上漲趨勢未變

近期銅價的上漲趨勢已重新確立,目前的關鍵在於重新站穩的 5.000 美元水平,這一價位同時也是重要的心理關口。只要銅價維持在其上方,市場仍可能指向上行。

銅價上漲趨勢未變-Ultima Markets
銅價上漲趨勢未變

在此之上,首個主要目標位在 5.425 美元,這是 7 月 30 日因關稅相關消息引發大跌前的最後支撐位。若能突破該區間,下一道潛在阻力位將出現在 5.555 美元,再往上則是今年高點 5.8912 美元,以及關鍵心理關口 6.000 美元。

麥克莫蘭銅金公司(FCX)反彈確立

此外,投資者可重點關注全球領先的銅生產商——麥克莫蘭銅金公司(FCX, Freeport-McMoRan)。FCX 在印尼、北美與南美擁有優質礦山資源,被視為銅價的放大器。

麥克莫蘭銅金公司(FCX)反彈確立-Ultima Markets
麥克莫蘭銅金公司(FCX)反彈確立

技術面來看,FCX 股價在 9 月下旬因格拉斯伯格礦難突發利空而斷崖式下跌,最低觸及約 35 美元,但隨後快速反彈,呈現出明顯的 V 型反轉雛形。近期多根陽線實體堅實,伴隨成交量放大,顯示買盤力量積極,但短線動能偏強後或出現技術性回踩,以確認底部有效性。

從形態推測,價格目前正挑戰 20 日均線壓制,若能連續收於其上方,反彈行情有望延續。整體而言,短線反彈趨勢已確立。若穩步收復 46 美元,將重新打開上升通道。若跌破 38 美元,則反彈可能告一段落,重回整理區間。

投資者可等待短期回調後布局,無論市場波動如何,掌握節奏,就能保持主動權。

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