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会议纪要揭示「严重分歧」:联准会暗示 2026 年初可能暂停降息

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2025 年 12 月 31 日

昨日公布的 12 月 FOMC 会议纪要,为市场热络的「降息派对」泼了一盆冷水。纪要显示,联准会内部的立场远比市场预期更加分歧且谨慎,暗示 2026 年的降息路径将比当前市场定价来得更缓慢、也更颠簸。

FOMC 会议纪要重点回顾:「偏鹰式降息」

12 月会议纪要的核心讯息是不确定性与鹰派基调。尽管联准会进行了降息,但内部讨论激烈,决策处于「极度拉锯」状态。

  • 明显分裂:本次降息并非一致通过。会议纪要罕见揭露 9 比 3 的投票结果,显示出优先关注就业放缓的鸽派,与担忧通膨黏着性的鹰派之间存在深层分歧。
  • 「暂停」讯号浮现:更关键的是,纪要指出「部分与会者」认为,在 12 月降息后,有必要在一段时间内维持利率区间不变,以观察后续数据表现。
  • 市场解读:这是一次典型的「偏鹰式降息」。联准会正在释放讯号:自动化的宽松循环已经结束,2026 年的进一步降息并非理所当然,而是将严格取决于数据表现,这与市场积极押注 1 月或 3 月再度降息的预期明显不符。

美元:底部或已成形

会议纪要中偏鹰的语气,为持续走弱的美元提供了支撑。在释放可能暂停降息的讯号后,美元获得重新站稳的理由,昨日已出现反弹迹象。

USDX,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

美元指数在 97.5 – 97.8 区间附近获得支撑。若短期有效突破该区间,意味着阶段性底部可能已经形成。

向上来看,若「暂停降息」的叙事持续发酵,且随着市场流动性回流,不排除美元指数反弹至 98.40,甚至测试更高的阻力区。

向下而言,97.5 – 97.8 仍是关键「多空分水岭」。唯有持续跌破该区间,美元的中期空头趋势才可能重新启动。

美股:现实检验时刻

美股三大指数中,S&P 500 与 Nasdaq 连续第三个交易日收低。会议纪要强化了年内涨幅最大的科技与 AI 板块的获利了结,而非刺激资金在年底追价创新高。

「宽松货币」的乐观情绪正在退潮,市场逐步转向谨慎。会议纪要亦显示,联准会对股市快速上涨表达担忧,警告若金融条件过度宽松,可能削弱对抗通膨的成果。联准会暗示降息步伐可能不如预期快速,通常并非风险资产的利多讯号。

不过,目前尚未出现全面性的恐慌迹象。科技股表现相对疲弱,但能源与价值型类股相对抗跌,显示这是资金轮动,而非全面避险。近期回调亦受到假期流动性偏低的放大影响。主要指数的关键技术支撑仍然守住,尚未出现明确警讯,但值得持续密切观察。

黄金(XAU/USD):反弹受限

黄金目前处于多空拉锯状态。尽管中长期多头结构仍在,但美元企稳与联准会可能暂停降息的风险,正在压抑短线上行动能,形成上方压力。

XAU/USD,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAU/USD,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

从技术面来看,金价已跌破 4,4004,380(前高)等关键心理关卡,显示下行压力正在上升,市场更可能进入整理阶段,甚至不排除出现更深一轮修正。

若多头要重新掌控盘势,金价必须重新站回 4,400 关卡之上,才能再次点燃上行动能。

今日关注重点(2025 年最后一个交易日)

随着 2025 年即将收官,市场焦点集中在最后几个关键变量。留意中国制造业 PMI 的市场反应。作为全球最大的商品消费国,中国若出现任何稳定迹象,都将为 铜、白银 在 2026 年初的走势定调。

美国市场方面,债券市场今日将于美东时间下午 2 点提前收盘。整体流动性预计将进一步收缩,需高度警惕尾盘价差扩大。特别留意 美东时间 3:00 – 4:00 PM 最后一小时,因基金经理进行年底资产净值结算,价格波动可能异常剧烈。

最后,Ultima Markets 预祝您新年快乐,期待在 2026 年继续与您一同穿越全球金融市场的每一个关键时刻。

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