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FOMC確認「更高利率維持更久」,市場焦點轉向日本央行

Ultima Markets 每日市場洞察 – 2026年3月19日

聯準會正式發聲,市場接收到的訊號相當明確:短期內不會迎來寬鬆政策的轉向。隨著FOMC釋出強烈的鷹派立場,全球市場今早迅速進行重新定價,確認利率將在可預見的未來維持於限制性水準。

在美元大幅走強、全球股市承壓之際,市場波動的主導權已轉向日本央行。隨著日圓逼近潛在干預區間,今日外匯與股市市場預料將迎來新一輪劇烈波動。

FOMC回顧:點陣圖強化鷹派立場

如市場普遍預期,聯準會主席鮑威爾於週三會議中維持利率不變。然而,真正引發市場震盪的是最新公布的經濟預測摘要(Dot Plot)。

2026年3月聯準會點陣圖 | 來源:聯準會

2026年3月聯準會點陣圖 | 來源:聯準會

此次點陣圖調整進一步驗證市場對通膨黏性與油價衝擊的擔憂,聯準會明顯下調降息預期並上修通膨展望:

  • 2026年全年最多僅預期一次降息
  • 核心PCE通膨預測上調至2.7%(此前為2.4%)

鮑威爾於記者會中進一步強調,在通膨明確回落之前,聯準會不會輕易放鬆政策,使整體立場明顯偏向鷹派。

美元影響:強勢格局延續

在此背景下,美元強勢反彈。隨著利差優勢進一步擴大,資金持續流入美元資產,推動美元指數(USDX)再次測試關鍵心理關卡。

USDX,H4 圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H4 圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

美元指數重新站上100.00整數關口,但該區域仍構成強大阻力。

若FOMC後動能不足以推動有效突破,美元可能在該位置持續受壓,需要更多時間整理。短期而言,只要美元維持在99.35支撐位上方,整體仍維持偏多格局。

日本央行前瞻:日圓的關鍵時刻?

隨著聯準會事件落地,市場焦點迅速轉向亞洲時段。日本央行將於今日公布利率決議,時機極為關鍵。

受美日利差持續擴大的推動,USD/JPY已逼近極端水準,目前交投於159.00 – 160.00敏感區間,該區過去曾多次引發日本當局干預。

當前,日本央行面臨重大抉擇: 要麼透過偏鷹派政策或升息支撐日圓,要麼由日本財務省(MoF)出手進行直接外匯干預。

USDJPY,H4 圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDJPY,H4 圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

USD/JPY目前在160.00心理關口下方震盪。若日本央行維持寬鬆立場並令市場失望,匯價可能迅速突破160。

但投資人需高度警惕——一旦突破該水準,日本當局進行大規模干預的風險將顯著升高。

技術面來看,若跌破159.00關卡,則可能意味多頭動能轉弱,短期內或進入修正階段。

全球股市展望:雙重風險壓制

股市今日明顯承壓。FOMC釋出的鷹派訊號,正是華爾街最不樂見的結果。

目前全球股市已陷入我們持續追蹤的「雙重風險」環境:借貸成本高企壓縮企業估值,同時面臨需求放緩與能源價格上升(滯脹風險)。

SP500,日線圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

SP500,日線圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

標普500在FOMC記者會後明顯受壓,於此前提及的6700阻力區遭遇強力拋售。

指數目前回落至200日均線(約6620)附近。若市場持續消化「更高利率維持更久」的現實,一旦跌破該關鍵支撐,可能觸發程式化賣盤,進一步打開下行空間,目標指向6500區域。

今日重點關注

  • 日本央行利率決議與記者會(亞洲時段) 今日最關鍵事件。日圓相關貨幣對預計將出現劇烈波動。若政策偏鷹,USD/JPY可能大幅回落;若維持鴿派,則將測試日本當局的干預意願。
  • 美國初請失業金人數(台北時間20:30) 在聯準會釋出鷹派訊號後,市場將密切關注就業市場變化。若失業申請人數意外上升,搭配高利率環境,將迅速強化滯脹疑慮,並加劇股市賣壓。
  • FOMC後市場再定價(全天) 觀察歐美時段市場如何消化聯準會政策訊號。若美元指數能持續站穩100上方,將確認全球資金流向出現結構性轉變。

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