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比特幣仍處下跌旗形,總統辯論決定長期走勢

今日Ultima Markets 爲您帶來了 2024年 9月 11日比特幣的深入分析。  

基本面要點  

  • 辯論賽決定比特幣未來:美國總統候選人哈里斯和特朗普今日即將在ABC新聞進行首場辯論。在6月特朗普與拜登辯論時比特幣飆漲,因爲特朗普曾明確支持支持加密貨幣。若特朗普表現更佳,則比特幣存在繼續上漲概率。  
  • 市場預期降息25基點:根據路透調查,101位經濟學家中有92位預計美聯儲將在9月18日降息25個基點,9位經濟學家預期降息50個基點。  

技術分析  

日線圖表分析  

 (比特幣周線圖,來源Ultima Markets MT4)  

  • MACD:動能柱在不斷縮減下跌,即將接近0軸附近,紅色慢線指標也正處於向下趨勢。與指標形成對比的是市價處於調整下跌狀態,因此在指標接近0軸後,關注當月是否存在反轉上行的跡象。  
  • 支撐價位:近兩週市價持續下跌,但是仍未跌破前期pin bar的最低價位。下方存在三重強支撐價位——下行通道線、黑色65周均線以及前期支撐價位48975附近。  

1小時圖表分析  

 (比特幣1小時圖,來源Ultima Markets MT4)  

  • MACD:動能柱有上漲跡象,同時標即將在0軸上方或將再度發出多頭信號。但值得注意的是,當前市價先於指標上漲,警惕比特幣價格存在頂背離反轉的概率。  
  • 艾略特波浪理論:比特幣在強勢突破上行通道線後就明確了上漲驅動浪,隨後的橫盤調整視爲浪4。基於浪3的延長浪屬性,預期浪5與浪1等比高度,關注上方58621.13的阻力情況。  

樞紐線指標  

 (比特幣30分鐘圖,來源Ultima Markets MT4)  

  • 根據Ultima Markets MT4中的樞紐線指標,當日中樞價位57369,  
  • 57369之上看漲,第一目標58354,第二目標59004  
  • 57369之下看跌,第一目標56709,第二目標55702  

免責聲明   

本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料只能視作一般市場資訊,僅爲協助讀者瞭解市場形勢而提供,並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已採取合理措施確保資料的準確性,但不能保證資料的精確度,及可隨時更改而毋須作出通知。Ultima Markets不會爲直接或間接使用或依賴此等資料而可能引致的任何虧損或損失(包括但不限於任何盈利的損失)負責。  

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