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美聯儲降息板上釘釘，歐央行卻無法拯救歐元 

今日Ultima Markets 為您帶來了 2024年 12月 12日的歐元兌美元深入分析。 

歐元兌美元基本面分析 

  • 美國通脹符合預期：11月未季調CPI同比增速進一步反彈，連續第二個月走高至2.7%，美國11月核心消費者物價指數同比增長3.3%，環比增長0.3%，全部符合預期。市場加強了對美聯儲12月將降息25個基點的預期。 
  • 歐央行登場：歐洲央行今日將公佈利率決議，市場預計歐洲央行將繼續降息25個基點。金融市場已完全消化了歐洲央行週四降息25個基點的預期，目前更大幅度降息的可能性接近於零。但是若拉加德表示任何鴿派的態度都將引發歐元貶值趨勢。 

歐元兌美元技術分析 

歐元兌美元日線圖表分析 

（歐元兌美元的日線圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4）

（歐元兌美元的日線圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

  • 隨機震盪指標：指標在50中位線上方再度發出下跌信號，暗示短期空頭力量佔據上風。但是基於快線昨日剛接近50中位線，在快線沒有明確進入下半區域前不值得關注做空機會。 
  • 關鍵支撐：歐元兌美元觸及1.04800支撐價位後反彈上行，該價位是前期11月27日當日大漲的開盤價，一旦跌破該支撐價位則調整結束，匯價將加速下跌。 

歐元兌美元1小時圖表分析 

（歐元兌美元1小時圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

（歐元兌美元1小時圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

  • 下行趨勢線：歐元兌美元連續受下行趨勢線壓制，匯價若想明確下跌趨勢結束，則需要關注匯價何時突破下行趨勢線。基於下方支撐價位強勁，警惕匯價遇阻反彈後有效站上下行趨勢線上方。 
  • 沃爾夫浪：目前市價形成潛在沃爾夫浪結構，點5在遇阻點1和點3延長線後將開啟反彈趨勢，第一目標看向點4水準位，同時也是綠色200均線附近。 

歐元兌美元Trading Central樞紐線指標 

（歐元兌美元的30分鐘圖，來源Ultima Markets APP） 

（歐元兌美元的30分鐘圖，來源Ultima Markets APP） 

  • 根據Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central樞紐線指標，當日中樞價位1.0530， 
  • 1.0530之上看漲，第一目標1.0550，第二目標1.0570 
  • 1.0530之下看跌，第一目標1.0475，第二目標1.0460 

免責聲明  

本文所含評論、新聞、研究、分析、價格及其他資料只能視作一般市場資訊，僅為協助讀者瞭解市場形勢而提供，並不構成投資建議。Ultima Markets已採取合理措施確保資料的準確性，但不能保證資料的精確度，及可隨時更改而毋須作出通知。Ultima Markets不會為直接或間接使用或依賴此等資料而可能引致的任何虧損或損失（包括但不限於任何盈利的損失）負責。  

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