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停火希望削弱美元溢價;黃金尋求築底

Ultima Markets 每日市場洞察 – 2026年3月25日

本週三,全球市場的風險情緒正在發生顯著轉變。隨著中東地區近期達成的停火協議似乎正在維持,本月早些時候主導市場的地緣政治恐慌情緒正在迅速轉變。

這一局勢降溫正在觸發主要資產類別之間的結構性輪動。美元開始失去其避險溢價,黃金在此前受收益率驅動的下跌後正努力建立穩固底部,而加密貨幣市場則強勢回歸,比特幣重新站上一個關鍵心理關口。

市場動態:美伊停火談判

在過去48小時內,外交努力明顯加速,為市場提供了急需的緩解。據報導,美國已向伊朗提交了一份包含15項內容的和平計劃,尋求達成30天停火,而特朗普表示停火談判「正在進行中」。

儘管伊朗昨日早些時候否認存在任何正在進行的談判,但截至目前,德黑蘭尚未對最新的停火談判言論作出回應。與此同時,還有報導稱,美伊高級別會談預計將在週四舉行,仍有待伊朗方面確認。

儘管如此,報復性言論的暫停以及針對關鍵基礎設施的即將實施打擊被叫停,表明停火希望仍在持續。

美元:避險溢價回吐

在過去幾週中,美元受到兩大因素推動而大幅走強:一是美聯儲「更高利率維持更久」的政策立場,二是由美伊衝突引發的大量避險資金流入。然而,隨著停火目前維持,這一地緣政治支撐開始出現裂痕。

儘管美國收益率優勢依然存在,但交易員正積極計入「戰爭溢價」的回吐。這正在導致極端的美元多頭倉位出現必要的平倉,使資金流向風險資產,或至少流出美元。

USDX,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

隨著避險買盤的消退,美元指數(USDX)正面臨新的賣壓。在未能維持突破100.00這一心理關口之後,指數目前開始走低。

從技術面來看,若美元跌破99.30水平,短期將持續承壓,從而限制美元上行空間。如果局勢降溫敘事持續,預計美元將在99.30這一短期阻力下方承壓,短期動能將轉向空頭並進入整理階段。

黃金展望:4500美元的爭奪戰

過去一週,黃金處於一場激烈的多空拉鋸之中。隨著地緣政治風險減弱,對避險對沖的即時需求下降,但在經歷一輪由收益率驅動的急跌之後,黃金終於開始獲得買盤支撐。

當前市場焦點完全轉向結構性支撐。在守住4400美元水平之後,多頭正試圖穩定市場並扭轉近期下行趨勢。今日的關鍵考驗在於,黃金不僅能否觸及4500美元區域,還能否成功收復並站穩該水平。

XAUUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAUUSD,H4 圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

黃金(XAUUSD)已在4400美元這一主要支撐位成功建立短期底部,暫時止住跌勢。當前價格走勢正嘗試展開修正性反彈。

然而,要否定整體看跌結構,多頭必須強勢將價格推回4500美元阻力上方,並將其重新轉化為支撐。一旦成功收復4500美元水平,下一步將觀察該位置能否穩固。目前來看,任何回落至4500美元附近的走勢,仍然提供了構建黃金潛在底部的良好買入機會。

加密貨幣:比特幣重回70000美元關口

隨著美元走軟以及地緣政治擔憂緩解,「風險偏好」交易可能重新回歸加密貨幣市場。比特幣已順勢反彈,重新突破70000美元這一重要關口。

這一突破具有重要意義。近期在70000美元附近出現的突破—回調—再測試並重新站上的結構,表明買方正在重新累積倉位。當前關鍵在於,比特幣能否將該水平鞏固為新的結構性底部,而不僅僅是一次短暫的動能上漲。

BTCUSD,日線圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

BTCUSD,日線圖 | Ultima Markets MT5

理想情況下,如果比特幣能夠重新上破70000–72000美元區間,這將暗示圖表出現轉折點,在經歷一段整理後形成短期看漲反轉突破。如果多頭能夠在日內回調中守住70000美元,將為下一輪上漲奠定堅實的結構性基礎。

今日關注

  • 停火進展(全天):當前市場的「風險偏好」情緒完全取決於中東停火是否持續。任何顯示外交進展破裂或軍事行動重啟的消息,都將立即逆轉當前資金流向,使資金迅速回流美元。
  • 美國耐用品訂單(美東時間8:30):這是衡量美國製造業健康狀況和企業投資的重要指標。強勁數據將再次證明美國經濟的韌性,即便避險溢價減弱,也可能為美元提供支撐。
  • 比特幣整理走勢:關注BTC在美股交易時段的表現。如果傳統股市高開並延續風險偏好情緒,預計比特幣將更有信心在70000美元上方建立新的價格基礎。

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