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美國CPI定調美聯儲政策預期,消費數據驗證經濟韌性

本周全球市場的交易邏輯將圍繞”美國通脹是否繼續回落”以及”消費者能否支撐經濟軟著陸”兩大核心議題展開。週三的CPI數據將為美聯儲的降息路徑提供關鍵指引,而週五的消費支出、GDP終值和消費者信心數據將共同描繪美國經濟的第一季度開局圖景。

美國2月紐約聯儲1年通脹預期

週一的美國2月紐約聯儲1年通脹預期將揭示消費者對通脹前景的心理預期。在美聯儲努力錨定價格穩定之際,上升的通脹預期可能使美聯儲實現通脹目標的努力複雜化,可能推遲降息預期並支撐美元。

美國2月成屋銷售

週二的美國2月成屋銷售數據將檢驗房地產市場在高利率環境下的韌性。成屋銷售已連續數月徘徊多年低位,本次數據將揭示傳統春季銷售旺季是否顯現復蘇跡象。若銷售數據出現企穩跡象,可能暗示房地產市場的最糟糕時期已經過去,為美元和房屋建築商股票提供溫和支撐。

美國2月CPI年率與月率

週三的CPI數據是本周當之無愧的市場”定調者”,當前市場正激烈博弈美聯儲首次降息的具體時機,任何核心CPI的黏性,尤其是服務業和住房成本分項,都將立即扼殺近期美聯儲轉向的希望。

美國經濟數據密集公佈

週五美國第四季度GDP終值、1月個人收入與支出、3月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值。這些全面概括了美國消費者和整體經濟的健康狀況。個人收入與支出報告包含美聯儲偏好的通脹指標,PCE物價指數。若強勁的消費支出伴隨黏性的PCE通脹將強化美聯儲”更高更久”的敘事。

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