{"id":4453,"date":"2023-08-14T02:04:53","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T02:04:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ultimamarkets.com\/?p=4453"},"modified":"2025-12-20T18:02:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T18:02:22","slug":"oil-bullish-trend-unchanged-however-correction-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ultimamarkets.com\/ms\/trade-news\/oil-bullish-trend-unchanged-however-correction-expected\/","title":{"rendered":"Harga Minyak Kekal Bullish Walaupun Correction Dijangka"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Harga Minyak Kekal Bullish Walaupun Correction Dijangka<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Laporan yang dikeluarkan minggu lalu oleh tiga organisasi minyak utama telah membantu pelabur memahami dengan lebih jelas keadaan pasaran minyak mentah dalam jangka pendek. Selepas harga minyak mencatatkan kenaikan berterusan sejak beberapa minggu lalu, pasaran dijangka berdepan fasa pelarasan harga (correction)<\/strong> dalam tempoh terdekat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Permintaan Meningkat Ketika Bekalan Menyusut<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Pada Jun 2023, permintaan minyak global harian mencatat rekod baharu dengan 103 juta tong sehari<\/strong>, dan masih dijangka mencapai paras tertinggi pada Ogos. Menurut International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/strong>, permintaan minyak mentah daripada 13 negara anggota OPEC<\/strong> dianggarkan purata 29.8 juta tong sehari<\/strong> bagi tempoh Oktober hingga Disember, jauh lebih tinggi berbanding anggaran 27.9 juta tong sehari<\/strong> pada Julai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Laporan bulanan OPEC<\/strong> pula menunjukkan kadar pertumbuhan permintaan minyak mentah global bagi 2023 dijangka kekal pada 2.44 juta tong sehari<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"OPEC<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(Posisi net long menyokong kenaikan harga minyak, laporan bulanan OPEC)<\/em>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Namun begitu, bekalan minyak global menurun sebanyak 910,000 tong sehari pada Julai<\/strong>, sebahagian besarnya disebabkan oleh pemotongan pengeluaran oleh Arab Saudi. Pada masa ini, inventori minyak mentah di negara maju berada kira-kira 115 juta tong di bawah purata lima tahun<\/strong>, menandakan pasaran semakin ketat akibat pengurangan bekalan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bagi separuh kedua 2023, IEA mengunjurkan penyusutan inventori global sekitar 1.7 juta tong sehari<\/strong>, yang menunjukkan ketidakseimbangan pasaran berpotensi memberi kesan lebih besar kepada harga minyak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Menurut laporan bulanan OPEC, pemotongan pengeluaran secara unilateral oleh Arab Saudi serta pengurangan eksport oleh Rusia telah menurunkan pengeluaran negara anggota OPEC+<\/strong> ke paras terendah hampir dua tahun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ketidakseimbangan Bekalan & Permintaan Cetus Turun Naik Harga<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Harga minyak mengekalkan trend menaik yang stabil sepanjang Julai. Dari sudut eksport, harga minyak mentah Rusia melonjak dengan ketara sebanyak USD 8.84 setong<\/strong>, menjadikan harga keseluruhan sekitar USD 64.41 setong<\/strong>. Walaupun begitu, hasil minyak Rusia dilaporkan menurun lebih 20% berbanding tahun lalu<\/strong>, menurut IEA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dari perspektif teknikal pula, harga minyak mentah dijangka berdepan pembetulan jangka pendek<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"carta<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(Carta harian Brent Crude, Ultima Markets MT4)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Berdasarkan carta harian di atas, harga minyak telah menghampiri zon rintangan penting sekitar USD 87\u201388<\/strong>. Indikator Stochastic Oscillator<\/strong> turut menunjukkan divergence<\/strong>, menandakan momentum kenaikan semakin lemah walaupun harga cuba menembusi zon rintangan tersebut.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Carta<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(Carta 1-jam Brent Crude, Ultima Markets MT4)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pada rangka masa 1 jam, purata bergerak jangka pendek telah mula menurun sepenuhnya, diikuti oleh purata bergerak jangka sederhana dan panjang. Harga minyak juga telah mencatat pembetulan yang jelas, menunjukkan tekanan penurunan intraday dengan sokongan terdekat dilihat berhampiran garis trend menaik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secara keseluruhan, harga minyak mentah berpotensi menghadapi tekanan penurunan dalam jangka pendek. Namun, dengan pemotongan pengeluaran yang berterusan serta pertumbuhan permintaan yang stabil, harga minyak masih mempunyai potensi untuk mencatat kenaikan dalam tempoh sepanjang tahun ini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Penafian:<\/strong>\u00a0Maklumat yang disediakan di sini adalah semata-mata untuk tujuan penyampaian maklumat dan tidak merupakan, serta tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai, nasihat kewangan, pelaburan, undang-undang, atau nasihat profesional lain dalam apa jua bentuk. Sebarang kenyataan atau pandangan yang terkandung dalam dokumen ini tidak boleh dianggap sebagai cadangan atau saranan oleh\u00a0Ultima Markets<\/a>\u00a0atau mana-mana pihak yang berkaitan terhadap sebarang produk pelaburan, strategi, atau transaksi tertentu. Para pembaca dinasihatkan agar tidak bergantung sepenuhnya kepada kandungan ini dalam membuat sebarang keputusan pelaburan dan digalakkan untuk mendapatkan nasihat bebas yang sewajarnya daripada penasihat kewangan bertauliah.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trend bullish harga minyak disokong oleh ketidakseimbangan bekalan dan permintaan, namun tekanan pembetulan jangka pendek semakin meningkat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":4625,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81],"tags":[21],"class_list":["post-4453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trade-news","tag-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHarga Minyak Kekal Bullish Walaupun Correction Dijangka | Ultima Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Trend bullish harga minyak disokong oleh ketidakseimbangan bekalan dan permintaan, namun tekanan pembetulan jangka pendek semakin meningkat.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ms_MY\" \/>\n<meta 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