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Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – February 6, 2026
US equity markets are under heavy pressure as a “Tech Wreck” (driven by Amazon) collides with alarming labor market data (Challenger Job Cuts).
To make matters worse, markets are effectively “Flying Blind” today. The highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report has been cancelled due to data collection gaps from the partial government shutdown. Without this key data to clarify the labor picture, risk-off sentiment is deepening ahead of the weekend.
US Market: The “Double Trouble”
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are facing significant downside pressure as two major pillars of the economy show cracks: Labor Market concerns and the Tech Capex crisis regarding AI spending.
The Tech Capex Crisis:
Amazon (AMZN) sank 11% after projecting massive capital spending for 2026 without immediate profit returns.
This dragged down Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, who all forecast outsized spending on AI, reinforcing the “AI Bubble” fear—that costs are rising faster than revenues.
The Labor Market Crack:
While the NFP was cancelled today, recent job data paints a grim picture. ADP Employment showed a massive miss (22K vs 47K consensus).
Meanwhile, Thursday’s data confirmed the slowdown: Challenger Job Cuts spiked, and JOLTS Job Openings hit their worst levels since the 2020 crisis.
Adding to the gloom, US Jobless Claims rose to 231K (vs 212K expected), confirming the trend seen in the weak ADP report earlier.
US Jobs Openings | Source: US BLS | Chart Source: TradingEconomics
Impact: This is a classic “Risk-Off” setup. Investors are rotating out of Growth stocks and moving into safe havens like Bonds and the US Dollar.
Nasdaq 100 Outlook
The Nasdaq 100, often seen as the representative index for high-growth tech stocks, has faced 3 consecutive days of sell-offs and closed lower in 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions from its record highs.
NAS100, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
The sell-off indicates that the Nasdaq 100 has failed to regain momentum for a further rally, turning the recent trend into high-level consolidation. Meanwhile, the breakout below the key 25,000 level suggests the index faces a potential near-term bearish reversal.
Outlook: If the Nasdaq 100 fails to regain the 25,000 – 24,750 zone, this could trigger a deeper pullback phase, especially if market sentiment fails to recover.
Crypto Market: Bitcoin Breaks $65,000 on Full Risk Aversion
The risk-off contagion has spread to digital assets, confirming that market sentiment has turned to full aversion.
Bitcoin (BTC) has broken below the psychological $65,000 support level today, signaling that liquidity is being pulled from speculative assets alongside the Tech sector.
Bitcoin is currently acting as a “Risk Asset” rather than a safe haven. Its correlation with the Nasdaq remains high during this liquidation event.
BTCUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
The failure to hold $65,000 opens the door for further downside volatility. Unless traditional risk assets (Equities) stabilize, the crypto market is likely to remain under pressure over the weekend.
Technically, any rebound below 72,000 suggests a “sell-the-rally” outlook. If market sentiment deteriorates further, Bitcoin could slip toward its September 2024 lows near 55,000.
Safe Haven: Can the Yen Regain its Crown?
The US Dollar continued to crown its safe-haven status amidst the broad market sell-off; however, with US Tech crashing and labor fears rising, could the Japanese Yen regain its crown as a “safe haven” too?
The “Carry Unwind” Risk: If the stock market sell-off accelerates today (especially if the Nasdaq breaks key support), we could see a rapid “unwinding” of Carry Trades. This could help the Japanese Yen regain its status as a premier safe haven.
USDJPY, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
To see if that happens, we need to observe if Yen safe-haven flows can dominate. With 157.00 – 156.80 now acting as the major resistance level, a failure to regain this zone followed by a break lower would confirm that safe-haven flows are finally prioritizing the Yen over the Dollar.
Conversely, managing to break above this level would suggest that the Dollar’s yield advantage and weak Yen remain the dominant drivers for the pair, indicating the Yen has failed to capitulate on the carry trade unwinding.
What to Watch Today
NO NFP Report: With the main data point cancelled, volatility could be erratic and driven by headlines rather than fundamentals. Be cautious of low-liquidity moves.
Canada Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET): With US data out, the Canadian jobs report takes the spotlight. A weak print here would hurt CAD significantly.
US Tech Close: Watch Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) into the close. If they fail to bounce, funds may dump positions before the weekend to avoid “Gap Down” risk on Monday.
Disclaimer
Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
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