US Equities Stage Relief Bounce? Dollar Reclaims Safe-Haven Crown

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – March 3, 2026

After a brutal start to the trading week driven by the eruption of a regional war in the Middle East, global markets are attempting to catch their breath. US equities staged a tentative relief rally on Monday, driven by oversold conditions and investors hunting for discounted tech and industrial shares.

However, the macro and geopolitical backdrop remains extremely hostile. The resilience in the US market is not mirrored globally, with European and Asian stock markets continuing to take heavy hits. This raises doubts about whether the US can truly be spared from the fallout.

US Equities Rebound: A Trap or a Bottom?

Wall Street managed to claw back some of its recent losses, with the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones catching a bid after the initial panic selling subsided.

However, this bounce may be largely technical. After pricing in the worst-case scenario following the weekend strikes in the Middle East, dip-buyers stepped in at major support zones. Yet, there has been no fundamental improvement in the geopolitical or macroeconomic landscape to justify a sustained rally.

Technical vulnerability remains the key focus, as we covered earlier. The structural damage on the charts remains severe. Both the Nasdaq and the Dow are trading well below their key moving averages, and this rally looks like a classic “dead cat bounce” or a corrective wave within a bearish trend.

NAS100, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The Nasdaq 100 bounced off the recent key support area near 24,450, pushing back toward the 24,800 – 25,000 zone. This area, which previously acted as major support, is now the critical resistance ceiling, as selling pressure was seen here.

If bulls fail to force a daily close above 25,000, bears will aggressively sell the rally, targeting new local lows.

Looking at the broader daily chart, the bullish trend setup has now moved into a consolidation phase.

DJ30, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Similarly, on the Dow Jones Index, the potential Head and Shoulders pattern we covered earlier remains intact, though it has yet to confirm a neckline breakout near 48,800 – 48,500.

Still, in the near term, a forceful close below this area could validate the bearish breakout, leading to heavy selling pressure and confirming a downward continuation for the Dow Jones.

US Dollar: The Safe-Haven Surge Returns

While Gold caught the initial headline panic, the US Dollar (USDX) is now emerging as the dominant safe-haven asset of choice as global liquidity needs rise and the conflict threatens to disrupt global trade.

The Narrative Shift: The “Stagflation” fears that weighed on the Dollar last week are taking a backseat. In times of extreme global uncertainty and the threat of severe supply chain disruptions (exacerbated by both the Middle East war and the looming 15% global tariffs), the Greenback is absorbing massive inflows, coupled with the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” outlook.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The Dollar Index has staged an impressive reversal, blowing past the 97.80 – 98.00 resistance and aggressively targeting the psychological 99.80 handle. The breakout of this resistance suggests that any dip in the Dollar now remains a “buy the dip” opportunity.

The 98.00 level has now flipped into major support; as long as the Dollar holds above this floor, the near-term bias remains heavily bullish.

XAUUSD, H1 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Meanwhile, the Dollar’s safe-haven surge has not negatively impacted Gold. Gold’s outlook remains steady, rebounding above the $5,300 support after a retest yesterday. In the near term, the focus for Gold prices may shift to trading within the $5,300 – $5,440 range.

What to Watch Today

War & Tariff Headlines (All Day): The Ultimate Driver

Geopolitics remain in the driver’s seat. Any escalation in the Middle East—specifically retaliatory strikes on oil infrastructure—or sudden executive orders regarding US tariffs will instantly override technical levels and trigger massive risk-off flows into the Dollar and out of equities. Trade with extreme caution.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.