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While the U.S. government shutdown continues, the market is poised for the release of the highly anticipated U.S. CPI data. Meanwhile, the APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting and Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index will offer key policy signals. With the Federal Reserve’s policy path remaining uncertain, any surprises in the inflation data could trigger significant market volatility.
Key Event to Watch:
1. U.S. CB Leading Index (MoM) – Monday
The U.S. Conference Board will release its Leading Index for September, which is used to forecast the overall economic trend over the next 3-6 months. Given that this index incorporates previously released official data, its direct impact on financial markets is typically limited. However, a continued downward trend in the data could signal a weakening of economic growth momentum.
Amidst rising trade protectionism, statements from finance ministers of various economies regarding the preservation of the multilateral trading system will influence market risk appetite. In particular, attention will be paid to whether any new coordination mechanisms are agreed upon regarding exchange rate volatility. Any initiatives to jointly address energy price fluctuations could also have profound implications
for commodity markets.
3. UK Retail Price Index (MoM) – Wednesday
The UK’s Retail Price Index is a measure of changes in the prices of goods and services. The market believes that UK inflation will be the highest among G7 countries this year and next, primarily due to accelerating food and labor costs. This data could reflect inflationary pressures from another angle.
4. Eurozone Consumer Confidence – Thursday
The Eurozone will release its Consumer Confidence Index for October, which is an important leading indicator for the outlook of the Eurozone economy. If the October data declines further, it will heighten concerns about an economic recession in the Eurozone and potentially prompt the ECB to consider earlier rate cuts.
5. U.S. CPI data for September – Friday
The U.S. CPI, to be released on Friday, is a crucial measure of U.S. inflation and will directly impact market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Besides the headline CPI figure, the core CPI (YoY), which excludes food and energy, is even more significant as it better reflects underlying inflation trends.
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