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This week’s market focus will primarily revolve around policy signals from major central banks and key economic data, particularly concerning the economic health of China and Europe. Furthermore, the interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will directly influence the direction of the British pound and the Australian dollar, while also reflecting the monetary policy paths of developed economies.

Key Event to Watch:
Ratingdog will release China October Manufacturing PMI. This data serves as a “thermometer” for the health of the country’s manufacturing sector. As the “world’s factory,” China’s economic momentum is a bellwether for global commodity prices and market demand. A strong reading could boost global market confidence.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its November interest rate decision, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged. A surprisingly sharp increase in Australia’s third-quarter inflation data has fundamentally altered the outlook for the official cash rate. Therefore, the market’s focus will be on the post-meeting statement; an emphasis on stubborn inflation would be supportive of the Australian dollar.

The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its interest rate decision. In contrast to Australia, recent UK inflation and employment data have been weaker than expected, increasing market expectations for a BoE rate cut and weighing on the pound and UK government bond yields. Additionally, potential fiscal tightening in the upcoming UK Autumn Statement on November 26 should support the case for an earlier rate cut by the BoE.

This release is a core indicator of the health of Canada’s labor market, including new job creation and the unemployment rate. Strong employment figures would likely keep the Bank of Canada cautious and hesitant to pivot towards rate cuts, thereby supporting the Canadian dollar. Conversely, weak data would lead to market expectations of an earlier rate cut, putting pressure on the currency.

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