Markets Brace for Nvidia Shock: Risk-Off Deepens Ahead of Key Data

Daily Market Insights – 18 November, 2025, Brought to you by Ultima Markets.

Today’s trading is defined by high-stakes positioning ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal Nvidia earnings release and mounting concerns over the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Following last week’s sharp correction, market sentiment has firmly shifted into Risk-Off mode.

Tech Sector & US Data Outlook

The global equity market is effectively holding its breath ahead of Nvidia’s Q3 earnings release tomorrow (Wednesday, November 19th) after the U.S. close. The future of the AI-driven rally will be determined by this single event.

The recent Nasdaq sell-off was driven by rising fears that the AI sector has become overvalued. As the most influential stock in the AI theme and the largest Nasdaq component, Nvidia now serves as the ultimate test. Any disappointment in earnings or guidance could validate current volatility and trigger a deeper correction.

Meanwhile, with the U.S. government now reopened, investors are also bracing for the imminent release of the long-delayed economic data (NFP, CPI). This data sequence will begin later this week and will provide the first major read on the economy post-shutdown — and could determine whether the Fed’s “hawkish pause” stance is justified.

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): The delayed September jobs report is confirmed for release this Thursday (November 20th). This will be the key benchmark for assessing labor market strength.
• CPI / PCE Data: Inflation releases will follow. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, along with the revised Q3 GDP figures, will be published on November 26th.

Equities & Risk: Correction Confirms Weakness

Markets are entering the week in a defensive stance, shifting firmly toward risk-off as investors brace for both major macro releases and a pivotal earnings event – Nvidia.

For now, equities and broader risk assets are trending sideways to lower, with sentiment dominated by persistent structural concerns: uncertainty over the Fed’s policy trajectory, valuation risks in megacap tech, and growing doubts about the durability of this year’s rally.

NAS100, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5

The Nasdaq 100 extended its recent decline, breaking below the key 25,000 level and confirming a technical break through the prior uptrend channel. This setup suggests the index may enter a longer corrective phase rather than a brief pullback.

If Nvidia’s results disappoint – or if incoming CPI and NFP data reinforce hawkish expectations – the downside could accelerate, with the index likely targeting the next major support zone.

FX & Gold Outlook: Risk Aversion Favors the Dollar, Not Gold

Despite the broader move into risk aversion, gold has struggled to maintain its role as a safe-haven, as capital continues to favor the U.S. Dollar instead. The key driver is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated for longer, supporting U.S. yields and diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

As long as real yields remain firm and policy expectations stay hawkish, gold is likely to remain under pressure, even in periods of market stress. A material shift in Fed guidance—or a sharper deterioration in risk sentiment—would be needed to restore upside momentum.

XAU/USD, H2 Chart | Ultima Market MT5

Fundamentally, gold remains under pressure as the market continues to price in a higher-for-longer policy path from the Federal Reserve—an outlook that has already been reflected in the recent pullback following last week’s strong rebound. Elevated yields and a firm U.S. Dollar continue to limit gold’s safe-haven appeal.

From a technical perspective, the metal is now approaching the 4,000 level once again. This area has emerged as a critical near-term support. With sentiment still divided between macro headwinds and periodic flight-to-safety flows, gold may consolidate in the Tuesday session.

For traders, the 4,000 zone now serves as a key line in the sand. If this support holds, gold is likely to remain range-bound in the near term. A confirmed break below would open room for deeper downside.

Daily Takeaway: Cautious Tone Ahead of Key Catalysts

With both earnings risk (Nvidia) and delayed macro data (NFP, CPI, PCE) on deck, today’s session is likely to remain one defined by hesitation rather than commitment. Positioning is defensive, liquidity is thinner, and investors are reluctant to take directional exposure until the next major signal arrives.

At this stage, markets are operating under a cautious-to-bearish bias: rate cut expectations have been pushed further out, the tech sector is facing its first real stress test in months, and the Fed’s policy path remains clouded by uncertainty.

A decisive shift in sentiment will require either a clear upside surprise from Nvidia or macro data that materially cools rate expectations.

Disclaimer

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