Hawkish Reality Hits Equities After Mixed Jobs Report

Daily Market Insights – November 21, 2025, Brought to you by Ultima Markets

Yesterday’s session saw the initial Risk-On rally collapse, as markets were forced to reconcile Nvidia’s exceptional corporate results with the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish policy stance. The post-NFP reaction triggered a sharp reversal in sentiment, sending global equities lower. The Nasdaq led the decline, reflecting a broad retreat from risk exposure.

U.S. Labor Market: A Mixed Signal for the Fed

The long-delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls report — the first major dataset following the government shutdown — delivered a mixed but impactful message for markets and policymakers.

• The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of 50,000, initially suggesting labor-market resilience.
• However, underlying softness quickly resurfaced: the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and previous months’ job gains were revised lower, reinforcing the cooling trend the Fed has repeatedly emphasized.

Policy Implication

The stronger-than-expected payroll number, combined with persistent hawkish commentary from Fed officials, has sharply reduced expectations for a pre-holiday rate cut. Market pricing now implies only 27% probability of a December cut. With hiring still showing momentum, the Fed has little urgency to accelerate its easing timeline.

Equities Show Risk-Off Sentiment: Higher-for-Longer Takes Hold

The market’s primary concern has shifted from the political sphere to the structural reality of monetary policy: higher interest rates for longer.

Despite Nvidia’s blowout earnings and strong guidance, the relief rally proved fleeting. The Nasdaq reversed sharply, as investors realized that corporate success alone cannot sustain the market against a tighter Fed.

The sharp declines across the tech sector confirm that high-valuation, high-growth stocks are the most vulnerable to a “Higher-for-Longer” rate regime, as higher bond yields make future growth profits less valuable.

The Bear Market?

The collapse in risk appetite not only into the equities market but alsospilled over directly into speculative assets. The cryptocurrency market extended its losses, with Bitcoin plunging below 90,000. The technical damage and fundamental shift raise the critical question of whether a deeper bear phase is beginning for the risk asset market including the equities and even cryptocurrency market.

SP500, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5

The aggressive selling pushed the key indices below critical support, With the S&P500 now rejected below the critical 50-day moving averages, this technically validating the bearish momentum seen in recent weeks

Structural Vulnerability: The market is highly susceptible to negative data shocks. Should the U.S. economy’s underlying weakness (seen in the rising unemployment rate) accelerate, the market could face a prolonged corrective period (even a period of bear market) where gains are modest and driven primarily by caution rather than exuberance.

BTCUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has broken below the key 90,000–88,000 support zone following yesterday’s sell-off. This move underscores the heavy pressure facing high-beta risk assets in the current market environment.

With momentum still weak, Bitcoin now looks likely to remain below the 90,000 mark and may even retest the April low near 78,000.

Daily Market Takeaways

The market sentiment today is firmly cautious. The119K Nonfarm job added beat provided confidence in the economy’s ability to withstand current rates, essentially confirming the Fed’s “no rush to cut” stance.

The immediate focus shifts to today’s S&P Global PMI figures to gauge broader business health. The next major catalyst will be the return of official CPI data, which the market desperately needs to justify any move toward further easing.

Disclaimer

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