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In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the BTCUSD for June 4, 2025.
Fundamental Analysis of BTCUSD
BTCUSD Key Takeaways
U.S. economic data and policy expectations: The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in May plummeted to 47.1, a new low since January 2024, and the market bet that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September rose to 78%. In addition, the U.S. Department of Labor has revoked restrictions on cryptocurrency investments in 401(k) plans, which will bring benefits to crypto assets such as Bitcoin and compliant funds entering the market.
Trump policy impact: The Trump administration postponed the imposition of high tariffs on the European Union, easing trade tensions and indirectly benefiting risky assets including Bitcoin. In addition, Trump Media Technology Group plans to invest $3 billion in cryptocurrencies, further strengthening its emphasis on the digital asset market.
Technical Analysis of BTCUSD
BTCUSD Daily Chart Insights
Stochastic oscillator: High sideways consolidation: Since hitting a recent high in late May (around $111,800), the price has begun to pull back and consolidate sideways in the $103,000-107,000 range. The current price fluctuates around the purple 13EMA (around $105,000-106,000), indicating that the short-term long and short forces have reached a temporary balance in this area.
Upper resistance: The primary resistance is the dynamic purple 13EMA (currently around $105,500-106,000). If it can re-stand on this moving average, it is expected to challenge the upper edge of the recent consolidation range (about $107,000-108,000), and then look towards the previous high.
Price Action: The recent bar entities are relatively small, with upper and lower shadows interlaced, especially near the $103,837 support level, where K-lines with longer lower shadows appear many times, indicating that there is a certain amount of buying support at this price. The overall trend is high.
BTCUSD 2-hour Chart Analysis
Stochastic oscillator: The stochastic indicator at the bottom shows that the %K line (blue) has crossed the %D line (red) from a relatively high position, forming a dead cross signal. Currently, both lines are running downward in the middle area. This indicates that the upward momentum of the market has weakened in the short term, and there may be some pressure for a correction or the need to continue to oscillate within the channel.
Short-term rising channel formation: The rising trend line connecting the recent lows (approximately May 30 and June 2) and the trend line connecting the recent highs (approximately June 1 and June 3) form a short-term rising channel or rising wedge. The price is currently blocked and falling near the upper rail of the channel.
BTCUSD Pivot Indicator
According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 105170,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 105170, first target 108510 , second target 109520;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 105170, first target 103480, second target 102480.
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