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さまざまな雇用統計を受けて、米ドル急伸 

主要6通貨に対するドル相場を示すドル指数は、0.2%上昇の101.21となった。6日、米国で発表された経済指標によると、8月の雇用者数の伸びは予想を下回り、労働市場の緩やかな減速を示唆した。7月の非農業部門雇用者数は8万9千人増と下方修正されたが、8月は14万2千人増と予想の16万4千人増を下回った。また、8月の平均時給は前月比0.4%上昇し、予想の0.3%を上回ったため、このデータはまちまちの結果となった。 

(米国非農業部門雇用者数推移。 出所:Forex Factory) 

(米国平均時給前月比推移。 出所:Forex Factory) 

雇用統計発表後、ドルは最初ほとんどの主要通貨に対して弱含みで推移したが、その後すぐに反発し上昇に転じた。この反応は、今回の雇用統計が0.25ポイントまたは0.50ポイントの利下げを支持する可能性の中間に位置したため、投資家が市場に不安を抱いたためである。LSEG (ロンドン証券取引所グループ)のデータによると、投資家は現在、9月17~18日のFOMC会合で政策金利を従来の5.25%~5.50%から4.75%~5%の範囲まで引き下げられる可能性が31%あると予想している。 

9月に0.50ポイントの大幅利下げが実施される可能性は依然として低いが、6日に発表されたデータは労働市場の基調悪化を明確に示しており、今後数ヵ月以内に少なくとも1回の大幅利下げが実施されるとの見方が強まっている。さらに、FRB高官は先週の金曜日に、労働市場が減速しており、政策調整がなければ状況がさらに悪化する可能性があると指摘し、次回の会合で一連の利下げに踏み切る用意があると述べた。 

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