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日本消費者物価予想外の鈍化、米国は日韓通貨安を懸念 

3月の日本全国消費者物価指数、生鮮食品を除く総合指数(エネルギーを含む)につき、前年同月比は2.6%の上昇となり、4ヵ月ぶりの高水準となった2月の2.8%より鈍化した。日本経済は緩やかな回復基調が続いているにもかかわらず、伸び率は2年連続で日銀の目標の2%以上となった。物価の鈍化は、食料品が小幅な上昇にとどまったことに起因するが、進行中のインフレは円安と原材料価格の上昇によって煽られた。 

日本銀行は3月にマイナス金利政策を解除し、賃金とインフレ率の上昇を受けて2007年以来の利上げに踏み切った。しかし、日銀はしばらくの間、緩和的な金融スタンスを維持すると見られている。日銀の野口旭審議委員は、今後の政策金利の引き上げの時期について、かなりゆっくりなものになるのがメインシナリオで、他の主要先進国で行われているような引き締め政策とは比較できないと述べた。 

3月の生鮮食品を除く総合指数は2.6%と市場予想の2.7%を下回ったが、日本におけるインフレ圧力の強い状況が続いていることをが浮き彫りとなり、日銀の金融政策正常化の取り組みが促された。 

(生鮮食品除く総合指数、上昇率。 出所:日本総務省統計局) 

水曜日に開催された初の日米韓3カ国財務相会合で、3カ国の財務長官は最近の激しい円安・ウォン高に対する懸念を共同声明した。3カ国は、為替市場の変動に取り組むため、緊密な意思疎通と協調を維持することを約束した。 

会合後、円相場は安定し、対米ドルで154円台に近い水準で推移したが、今週初めにつけた34年ぶりの安値にまだ近づいている。日米の金融政策の乖離により、円安を維持する可能性が高い。 

(米ドル/日本円年足チャート) 

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