Focus on EUR/USD today. 

Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, and it is basically a certainty that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, since the Federal Reserve will also release its latest Summary of Economic Predictions(SEP), the dot plot is the focus of the market’s attention.  

The most debated question right now is whether the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of the year, and whether the monetary policy in 2024 will change the stance taken in June and a more conservative interest rate path will be adopted. These all affect the direction of the U.S. dollar index. If the Federal Reserve changes its stance on interest rate cuts in 2024, the U.S. dollar index will fall significantly. Otherwise, the U.S. dollar index will further break through the high point. 

Technically, although the stochastic oscillator has crossed upward on the daily chart, the exchange rate has always been suppressed by the 5-day moving average, and the market is more likely to form a consolidation range. 

( Daily chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The candle bar yesterday was a pin bar, so the structure today is more important. If it breaks through yesterday’s high, the market’s rebound space will further look closer to the 200-day moving average; if a large physical candle bar closes today, the exchange rate may fall further. 

(4-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, after the market hit the resistance area composed of the 65-day moving average and the 33-day moving average, the stochastic oscillator began to cross downward. Structurally, the EURUSD has formed a relatively clear rising flag-shaped consolidation area, and there is a certain probability that the short trend will continue after falling below it. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

If you look at the 1-hour chart structure, you will find it is clearer. As the stochastic oscillator remains in oversold territory, the Asian session may remain consolidated. You need to wait patiently for the price to fall below yesterday’s low and the lower edge of the flag channel, and then switch to a smaller cycle to look for intraday entry opportunities.

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is 1.06908. 

Bullish above 1.06908, first target 1.07063, second target 1.07334 

Bearish below 1.06908, first target 1.06635, second target 1.06477 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

If you have read our article “Basic Types of Charts in Technical Analysis”, now it’s time to unlock the secret with technical analysis indicators. Let’s dive in!

• Moving Averages:

Moving averages calculate the average price of a currency pair or any other asset over a specific period, such as 10 days or 50 days, to reveal the trend. By plotting these averages on a chart, you can easily spot if prices are going up or down. They help you identify potential buy or sell signals to make trading decisions like a pro!

• Relative Strength Index (RSI):

RSI helps you measure the strength and momentum in the markets. This oscillator ranges from 0 to 100. When it goes above 70, it suggests the asset might be overbought. On the contrary, when it drops below 30, it indicates the asset might be oversold.

• Bollinger Bands:

Bollinger bands are like dynamic rubber bands hugging the price chart. They consist of a moving average line in the middle, with two bands above and below, representing standard deviations from the average. When the price moves close to the bands, it could mean a surge in volatility. Bollinger Bands are perfect for identifying potential price breakouts or reversals so that you won’t miss those exciting trading moments!

Summary

You can combine these indicators to build your trading superpower! For example, you might use moving averages to spot trends, RSI to identify overbought or oversold conditions, and Bollinger Bands to confirm potential breakouts. The possibilities are endless, and by blending different indicators, you can develop your own unique trading strategy.

Technical analysis in forex trading is like solving a puzzle using historical price data. It helps us understand the past and make predictions about the future.

What is Technical Analysis?

By studying these puzzle pieces—patterns, trends, support and resistance, and using indicators—we can make predictions about future price movements. But remember, technical analysis is not foolproof. It’s like a game of probabilities, where we use historical clues to make educated guesses about what might happen next. It’s important to combine technical analysis with other forms of analysis, like understanding economic news and managing risks.

By learning technical analysis, people can develop a better understanding of how prices move in the forex market and use this knowledge to make more informed trading decisions. It’s like being a detective, solving puzzles and making predictions based on the clues we find in the charts. Just like any skill, practice and continuous learning are key to becoming better at technical analysis.

Key Components of Technical Analysis

As we mentioned above, traders rely on various clues from the past to predict the future. And here are some key clues frequently used to make predictions:

• Price charts:

Price charts show the historical prices of a currency pair, like a line graph or candlestick chart. These charts display the ups and downs in currency prices over time.

• Patterns and trends:

Traders look for patterns and trends in the price charts. They observe how prices have moved in the past to identify similar patterns that might happen in the future. For example, they might notice that every time the price goes up a certain amount, it tends to come back down, or vice versa. These patterns are used to predict when the price might go up or down next.

• Indicators:

Traders use indicators, which are special calculations based on price data, to obtain more market information. For example, they might use moving averages, which show the average price over a certain period, to identify trends. They can also use oscillators, which help determine if a currency is overbought or oversold.

Summary

• Traders can make predictions about future price movements by relying on technical analysis.
• Technical analysis consists of many key components, such as price charts, patterns and trends, and indicators.

If you have read our article “Introduction to Technical Analysis”, then you must be aware of the significance of technical analysis, which is used by master traders to predict the ups and downs of the financial markets. In this article, we are going to lift the curtain on the myth of technical analysis: Charts!

• Line charts:

Let’s start with the most beginner-friendly chart: the line chart. Line charts display the closing prices of a currency pair, stock, crypto, or any other type of financial asset, over a specific time frame, and these price dots are connected with a line.

This straightforward chart gives a clear picture of price movements, convenient for you to take a quick glance at the market’s overall trend.

• Candlestick charts:

Candlestick charts are like little rectangles with wicks on top and bottom. These candles stand for price movements within a specific time period (maybe an hour or a day). The body of the candle indicates the opening and closing prices, while the wicks reveal the highest and lowest prices during that time. By taking advantage of candlestick charts, you can access more details about the magnitude of price movements.

• Bar charts:

Bar charts resemble vertical lines with small dashes on each side. The top dash represents the highest price, the bottom dash the lowest price, and the vertical line the opening and closing prices. Sounds like candlestick charts? That’s right. Bar charts are just like cousins of candlestick charts, providing similar information with just a slightly different look.

Summary

Charts help us unravel patterns, trends, and potential price movements. By analyzing these charts, you can make reasonable predictions about where prices might head next, giving you a competitive edge in CFD trading. Charts are your trusty companions to embark on the thrilling journey of trading.