Global Mobile Phone Production Decline in 2H23: Insights and Analysis

According to a TrendForce survey, after global smartphone production fell by nearly 20% year-on-year in the first quarter, production continued to decline by approximately 6.6% in the second quarter, to only 270 million units.

A total of 520 million smartphones were produced in the first half of 2023, a 13.3% decline compared to the same period last year. Both individual quarters and the first half of the year in total set a ten-year low. 

Factors Influencing Mobile Phone Production Decline

There are three reasons for the sluggish production performance:

1. China’s lifting of epidemic prevention restrictions has not boosted demand as expected.

2. The demographic dividend effect of the emerging Indian market has not effectively exerted its advantages. 

3. In 2022, brand names were severely hampered by excessive channel inventory. It was originally expected that as the inventory reduced, brand names would have returned to normal production levels. However, affected by the weak economy, people’s consumption willingness is more conservative, resulting in production performance in the first half of the year being less than expected. 

Top Six Global Smartphone Brands Challenges and Channel Inventory

(2Q23 global smartphone production and market share ranking) 

Samsung’s production performance in the second quarter was not as good as the same period last year. The total production in the second quarter was 53.9 million units, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.4%, but it still ranked first in production.  

Apple is facing the transition of new and old models. The second quarter is probably the lowest production performance among the four quarters, with output of 42 million units, a quarter-to-quarter decrease of 21.2%. It is worth noting that Samsung and Apple are quite close in their full-year production forecasts. If the iPhone 15 series performs better than market expectations, it may overtake Samsung to become the number one brand in the global market.

Xiaomi’s output in the second quarter was approximately 35 million units, a quarterly increase of 32.1%, driven by the gradual decline in channel inventory and the launch of new models.  

A special change in the ranking is that Transsion overtook Vivo and entered fifth place in the world for the first time. Its production volume increased by more than 70% quarter-on-quarter to 25.1 million units.  

Outlook for the Global Smartphone Market

The overall economy has not fully recovered in the second half of the year, and demand in consumer markets such as China, Europe and the United States has not yet recovered significantly. Even if the economic indicators of the Indian market improve, it is still difficult to reverse the decline in global smartphone production.  

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive GBP/NZD Analysis for October 4, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of GBP/NZD for 4th October 2023. 

Key Insight: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Economic Outlook

• RBNZ Decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has opted to maintain the interest rate at 5.50%.
• Consistency: Notably, this marks the third consecutive time that the central bank has refrained from adjusting interest rates.
• GDP Growth: Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the June quarter, the overall growth outlook remains subdued.
• Global Economic Risks: The RBNZ Committee has expressed concerns about downside risks to the global economic growth outlook in the medium term.
• Short-Term Currency Trends: In the short term, the New Zealand dollar may face a depreciation trend.

Technical Analysis: A Closer Look on GBP/NZD Trading Charts

GBP/NZD Daily Chart Insights

Reversal Structure: The daily chart illustrates a clear reversal structure, with the 240-day moving average acting as a significant resistance point.

( Daily chart of GBP/NZD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The stochastic oscillator technical indicator has also left the oversold area after being oversold for nearly 9 trading days. The market may continue to rebound and rise today. 

GBP/NZD 4-Hour Chart Observations

• Motive Wave: A five-wave upward structure has emerged since the end of September, signaling a potential motive wave.
• Moving Average Test: The market has surged rapidly and is nearing the 65-period moving average, a level to monitor for potential breakout.

(4-hour chart of GBP/NZD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of GBP/NZD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Central Price: According to Ultima Markets MT4 pivot indicator, the central price for the day stands at 2.04099.

• Bullish Outlook: A price movement above 2.04099 could trigger an upward momentum, targeting 2.05336 as the first level of resistance and 2.06164 as the second.
• Bearish Outlook: A dip below 2.04099 may indicate a bearish trend, with the first support level at 2.03301 and the second at 2.02075.

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

US Manufacturing PMI Shows Improvement, but Stagnant Inflation Remains a Concern

The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 49 in September from 47.6 last month, well above market expectations of 47.8, reflecting the slowest contraction in the U.S. manufacturing industry in ten months.

Even as the economic slowdown improved, data still showed U.S. factory activity contracting on a month-on-month basis for nearly a year in a row, underscoring the impact of rising borrowing costs from the Federal Reserve on the industry.

Trends in New Orders and Production

Although new orders fell for the 13th consecutive month, the pace of decline slowed significantly as the changing supply chain environment pushed customers to take on more engineering (process).

Production rebounded from August’s stagnation and set the largest increase since July 2022. 

(ISM Manufacturing PMI, Institute for Supply Management) 

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.8 in September 2023, surpassing the preliminary estimate of 48.9 and exceeding August’s final reading of 47.9.

The latest figure pointed to a fifth consecutive month of contraction in the sector’s health, albeit only fractional. Output increased at a marginal pace that was nonetheless the fastest since May.

In contrast, job creation remained moderate, and new orders continued to decline for the fifth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of high interest rates and inflation on consumer demand.

Inflation and Business Confidence

On the price front, both input costs and output charges accelerated, though inflation rates remained historically low, well below the levels seen over the past three years.

Moreover, business confidence reached its highest level since April 2022, driven by optimism about an impending improvement in demand conditions.  

Stagnant Inflation (Stagflation)

(US Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global) 

Based on the surveys, although survey data have improved overall, manufacturing reports show that production continues to slow down, and prices are accelerating again. The phenomenon presented is “stagnant inflation (Stagflation)“.

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive Brent Oil Analysis for October 3, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the Brent Oil (UKOUSD) for 3rd October 2023. 

Key Takeaways

Key Point: The lifting of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, coupled with robust PMI data, has driven the U.S. dollar index to 107, a level not seen since November last year. This surge in the dollar’s strength has led to a sharp decline in non-U.S. currencies and a corresponding dip in crude oil prices, reaching three-week lows.

• Increased OPEC Production: Notably, OPEC’s oil production increased by 120,000 barrels per day in September compared to August, reaching 27.73 million barrels per day for the second consecutive month.
• Bearish Sentiment Emerges: Concerns over increased supply and the impact of high interest rates on demand have prompted bearish sentiment in the crude oil market.

Brent Oil Technical Analysis

Brent Oil Daily Chart Analysis

( Daily chart of BRENT OIL, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Key Point: The daily chart reveals a rapid decline in crude oil prices, signaling a strong bearish trend.

Stochastic Oscillator Signals

Key Point: Stochastic oscillator technical indicators suggest a divergence from market prices, indicating a high probability of short-term bearishness.

Brent Oil 1 Hour Chart Analysis

(1hour chart of BRENT OIL, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Key Point: Recent significant volatility is observed on the 1-hour chart, with the ATR combination indicator signaling an effective breakthrough. Traders should exercise caution and monitor entry opportunities.

Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of BRENT OIL, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Key Point: According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets’ MT4 platform, the central price of the day stands at 92.210. Technical outlook:

• Bullish Scenario: Above 92.210, with targets set at 92.951 and 95.175.
• Bearish Scenario: Below 92.210, with targets at 90.003 and 89.210.

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

The Rise of NVIDIA: A Dominant Force in IC Design

In the fast-paced world of integrated circuit (IC) design, the tides are constantly shifting, and the recent performance of the industry’s top players has been nothing short of remarkable.

According to TrendForce reports, fueled by an AI-driven inventory stocking frenzy across the supply chain, 2Q23 revenue for the top 10 global IC design powerhouses soared to US $38.1 billion, marking a 12.5% quarterly increase.

In this rising tide, NVIDIA seized the crown, officially dethroning Qualcomm as the world’s premier IC design house, while the remainder of the leaderboard remained stable.  

(2Q23 World’s top 10 IC design houses, TrendForce) 

NVIDIA: The New Kingpin

NVIDIA benefited from global CSPs (cloud service providers), internet company and enterprise generative AI, large-scale language model import application demands, and its data center revenue increased by as much as 105% quarterly.

In addition, revenue from gaming and professional visualization businesses also continued to grow, driven by new products.

Overall, revenue in the second quarter reached US$11.33 billion, a quarterly increase of 68.3%.   

Qualcomm’s Challenges

Qualcomm’s Q2 took a hit as the Android smartphone sector grappled with dwindling demand and Apple’s modem pre-purchases resulted in a subdued seasonal rhythm.

Consequently, their revenue slid by 9.7%, rounding off at about US$7.17 billion. 

Broadcom’s Mixed Bag

Broadcom benefited from the sales of high-end switches and routers catalyzed by generative AI, its NetCom business increased by about 9% quarterly.

However, offset by the decline in server storage, broadband, and wireless business, the second quarter revenue was roughly the same as the previous quarter at about $6.9 billion.  

AMD’s Steady Stance

AMD’s overall second-quarter revenue was roughly the same as the previous quarter at about US$5.36 billion, due to the decline in gaming GPU sales and embedded business in the second quarter.  

The Outlook for IC Design Houses

Although the inventory levels of semi-companies have improved significantly compared with those in 1H23, the outlook for the second half of the year tends to be conservative because of the weak market demand.

It is worth noting that the wave of generative AI and large-scale language model deployment has emerged among Internet companies and private enterprises.

It is expected that AI will be more helpful to related supply chain operations in the second half of the year, and the average sales unit price of such products will be higher than that of consumer products.

As a result, the world’s top ten IC design revenue will continue to have double-digit quarterly growth in the third quarter, and the output value is expected to reach a new high. 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive AUD/USD Analysis for September 28, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of AUD/USD for 28th September 2023. 

Key Takeaways

• Australian Inflation: Australian inflation reached a notable 5.2% in September 2023, in line with market expectations. This marked a significant uptick since June and is primarily attributed to the depreciation of the Australian dollar and rising oil prices.
• Market Perception: The market’s consensus was that these inflationary pressures, while substantial, would not be adequate to persuade the RBA to pursue an interest rate hike strategy. As a result, the initial reaction in the currency markets was mixed. The Australian dollar experienced a short-lived appreciation, but the prevailing sentiment soon led to a decline.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Impact

• Short-Term Outlook: The short-term Australian data had a limited impact on the currency pair. Market attention swiftly shifted to the United States, with a specific focus on the core PCE data. Should this data continue to show an upward trend, it could maintain the possibility of interest rate hikes during the year, consequently bolstering the US dollar.
• Budgetary Concerns: However, the situation in the United States presents a significant variable. The fiscal year for 2023 is concluding, and if political parties fail to reach an agreement on the budget, the risk of a government shutdown looms large. In such an event, the market may seize the opportunity to speculate on a weakening US dollar.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Chart Analysis

(Daily chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Significant Decline: The daily chart indicated an expected decline in the exchange rate following the inflation data release. Subsequently, the market exhibited a distinctive Wolfe wave pattern, which carries the potential for a substantial rebound. It’s important to note that this pattern does not signify a definitive trend reversal at this stage.

AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis

(4-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Divergence Structure: Transitioning to the 4-hour chart, the price decline led to the formation of a stochastic divergence pattern. This suggests that sellers may find motivation to close their positions and exit at the support level. Observing the influence of the 33-period moving average is crucial.

AUD/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4)

Critical Zone: Within the 1-hour timeframe, the area around 0.63853 is a crucial support and resistance conversion zone. This level is also proximate to the 65-period moving average. A potential breakout above this resistance level may pose challenges for the Australian dollar in maintaining its downward trajectory for the day.

Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4)

Key Price Levels: According to the pivot indicator within Ultima Markets MT4, the central price for the day stands at 0.63638.

• In bullish scenarios above this level, the first target is 0.63977, and the second target extends to 0.64422.
• In bearish scenarios below 0.63638, the first target is 0.63204, with the second target at 0.62868.

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

How Supply Chain Tensions Impact Crude Oil Prices in October 2023

The American Petroleum Institute’s weekly statistical report shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.586 million barrels in the week ending September 22, 2023, after a decrease of 5.25 million barrels in the previous week.

WTI crude futures rebounded to $90.7 a barrel, hovering at their highest level since November. The prospect of tight supplies helped markets shake off worries about rising interest rates and their impact on the economy.

The $90 pivot point is psychologically important and reinforces the belief that the market is poised for further upside.

Additionally, crude oil tends to perform well in inflationary environments as investors seek refuge in tangible assets rather than currencies. 

(United States API Crude Oil Stock Change) 

(WTI crude Daily chart) 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive AUD/USD Analysis for September 27, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUD/USD for 27th September 2023. 

Key Takeaways

Fundamentally, our analysis centers on the forthcoming release of Australia’s August CPI data and its potential repercussions for the AUD/USD market. Key takeaways include:

• Inflation Expectations: Market consensus points to a potential inflation rise from 4.9% in July to 5.2% in August, fueling discussions on impending interest rate hikes.
• Drivers of Inflation: The depreciation of the Australian dollar and escalating oil prices are identified as the driving forces behind the expected inflation surge.
• RBA’s Dilemma: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces the pivotal decision of whether to implement interest rate hikes, with market expectations influencing their stance.
• Market Reaction: Anticipate a post-data release rebound in the Australian dollar, though the sustainability of this uptrend remains uncertain.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Chart Analysis

( Daily chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the daily chart, the U.S. dollar index has exhibited a notable upward trajectory. Key technical observations include:

• Breakthrough: The U.S. dollar index has closed above the upper boundary of its consolidation range.
• Stochastic Oscillator: An upward cross on the stochastic oscillator underscores the bullish trend in the U.S. dollar index.

AUD/USD 4-hour Chart Observations

(4-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Shifting focus to the 4-hour chart, we identify essential technical aspects that inform market dynamics:

• Previous High Breakthrough: Following a 12-day consolidation phase after the U.S. dollar index surpassed its previous high on September 5, it has continued its upward course.

1-hour Chart and ATR Combination Indicator

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The 1-hour chart and the ATR combination indicator offer granular insights into the market:

• Breakthrough Effectiveness: The ATR combination indicator supports the effectiveness of the U.S. dollar index breakthrough.
• Potential Retracement: During the Asian session, a retracement is anticipated, necessitating patience from traders. The initial target is set at 105.443.

Pivot Indicator Analysis

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Ultima Markets MT4’s pivot indicator serves as a vital reference point for traders:

• Central Price: The central price for the day is positioned at 105.527.
• Bullish Scenario: A bullish outlook prevails above 105.527, with the first target at 105.874 and the second target at 106.123.
• Bearish Scenario: Conversely, in a bearish scenario below 105.527, the first target is 105.282, with the second target at 104.937.

Conclusion