Comprehensive Brent Oil Analysis for October 12, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the Brent Oil (UKOUSD) for 12th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• Dovish speeches : Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic have continued their recent dovish stances. The market is betting that the probability of raising interest rates in November is less than 9%. 
• The reduction agreement may be extended: Putin said that the OPEC+ (production reduction) agreement is likely to be extended, and further measures may be taken next year to stabilize the market. 
• API inventories surge: U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by nearly 13 million barrels last week, the largest increase since January. As supply concerns subside and API crude oil inventories increase significantly, U.S. and Brent oil prices fell in the short term. 

Technical Analysis In Brent Oil Trading Chart

Brent Oil Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has a downward trend today, but it has not yet clearly formed a “dead cross”. We need to wait for confirmation of today’s oil price trend. 
• Price Action:  The price gap below is a common potential support price. The market will have a certain probability of rebounding and rising. 
• Moving average: The price that jumped in the early stage fell after being blocked by the 33-day moving average, and the first target below is the 240-day moving average. This price overlaps with the price gap, so the decline today is temporarily judged as an adjustment.  On the contrary, only after falling below the low price of October 6 can it be confirmed that crude oil prices will continue to follow a long-term short trend.

Brent Oil 1-Hour Chart Analysis

• Fibonacci price: Temporarily judge that the current downward trend is the adjustment structure of the previous upward trend. It can be seen from the Fibonacci retracement line (black) and Fibonacci extension level (red) that it has reached 61.8. % callback and 100% proportional expansion position, the market has a certain probability of support. If it continues to break down, the market will look toward the 78.6% correction and 138.2% proportional expansion. 
• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator went down again during today’s Asian trading session. Wait for the “golden cross” to appear in the oversold area to confirm the arrival of the bull trend. 

Brent Oil Pivot Indicator

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 87.055, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 87.055, first target is 87.978, second target is 89.880. 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 87.055, first target 85.152, second target 84.229. 

Conclusion for Brent Oil Analysis

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. 

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets. 

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets. 

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets. 

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

Comprehensive EUR/NZD Analysis for October 11, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EUR/NZD for 11th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• Pay attention to governors’ speeches: Many Fed governors will speak in public today and pay attention to potential monetary policy attitudes. 
• The Palestinian-Israeli conflict supports the US dollar: The recent instability in the Middle East may provide support for the recent weakness of the US dollar, and the euro will be relatively suppressed. 
• The RBNZ would hike rates this year: New Zealand’s strong immigration and expansionary fiscal policies this year have weakened the impact of the current interest rate level of 5.5%. The market expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the official cash rate to 5.75% in November. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

• Price action: the bar yesterday closed into a Pin Bar, which is a strong bearish signal. The market has greater downward momentum today. However, it is worth noting that if the market breaks through yesterday’s high, it will be another breakthrough price action, and the market will most likely start a bullish trend this week. 
• 240-day moving average: The exchange rate has adjusted at the 240-day moving average for two days in the previous period. There is a certain probability of breaking through this support level today.

1-Hour Chart Analysis 

• Stochastic Oscillator: Technical indicators have shown the upward trend and the market has a certain rebound momentum in the Asian session. For the rebound to turn into an upward reversal, it is necessary to cooperate with the price trend to break through the moving average suppression. 
• Moving average : The current rebound of EURNZD is blocked by the blue 17-period moving average and the 33-period moving average. Before breaking through this resistance, the entire trend is still judged to be a rebound. 
• Support level: If the subsequent price falls below the intraday low of 1.75284, today’s upward trend will be confirmed as a rebound, and you can pay attention to entry opportunities at that time. 

Pivot Indicator 

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.75552, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.75552, the first target is 1.76025, and the second target is 1.76801 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.75552, first target 1.74776, second target 1.74283. 

Conclusion 

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. 

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets. 

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets. 

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets. 

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

World economy to grow 3% YoY 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the world economy to grow by 3% this year as stronger-than-expected growth in the United States offsets lower prospects for China and Europe and cut its 2024 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%. 

Fast economic recovery in the US 

The International Monetary Fund says: “The strongest recovery among major economies is the United States, which is increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario.” The agency expects the overall economic growth of the 20 countries using the euro to be 0.7% for 2023 and 1.2% next year; while China’s economy will grow by 5% this year and 4.2% in 2024, and specifically points out: “The crisis in China’s real estate industry may deepen and have global spillover effects, especially for commodity exporters.” In contrast, the U.S. economic growth forecast is raised to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. 

Global inflation forecast raises to 6.9% 

The International Monetary Fund raises its global inflation forecasts for this year and next year by 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points to 6.9% and 5.8% respectively. Commodity prices pose “serious risks” to the inflation outlook and could become more volatile due to climate and geopolitical shocks. “Expectations of higher inflation in the future are likely to influence current inflation rates, keeping them high,” the IMF notes. 

Real estate impacted by high interests  

The International Monetary Fund also addresses that the prospect of “higher in the longer term” interest rates has led to sharp falls in house prices in some countries. Vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate sector “pose significant risks to the financial sector” and urge policymakers to assess the impact that a sharp drop in real estate prices could have on financial institutions. 

(GDP YoY Growth 2023，IMF) 

(GDP YoY Growth，IMF ) 

Red: developing economies，Yellow: World，Green: Advanced economies 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive EUR/USD Analysis for October 10, 2023

At Ultima Markets, we are dedicated to providing you with insightful market analysis to help you make informed trading decisions.

In today’s edition, we focus on the EUR/USD currency pair, delving into both fundamental and technical factors that may impact its performance in October 2023.

Key Takeaways

1. 1. Rising U.S. Treasury Yields: The recent surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields has led to a substantial increase in borrowing costs. This development has garnered attention from influential figures in the financial landscape, including hawkish Logan and Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson.
   
2. 2. Fed’s Potential Pivot: Acknowledgments from Logan and Jefferson hint at a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate hikes. This shift could diverge from previous expectations, impacting the EUR/USD currency pair.
   
3. 3. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar: Notably, the U.S. dollar index is displaying signs of weakness in the upcoming week. The primary driver behind this trend remains the rising U.S. bond yields.

Fundamentals Impacting EUR/USD

The recent surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields has substantially increased borrowing costs, reverberating throughout the financial markets. This development has garnered attention from key figures in the financial world, including the hawkish Logan and Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson.

Their acknowledgment of the impact of rising U.S. bond yields on financial conditions suggests a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate hikes. As a result, the U.S. dollar index is poised for a potentially weak trend in the coming week.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart Insights

( Daily chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Turning our attention to the daily chart, we observe the stochastic oscillator’s fast line crossing the slow line. However, it’s crucial to note that this indicator is approaching the 50 midline, while the market is in close proximity to the 17-day moving average.

These technical signals suggest the possibility of a market decline today. However, entering long positions should be contingent on a decisive market breakthrough, followed by close monitoring of retracement prices.

4-Hour Chart Analysis

(4-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, there are indications of a head-and-shoulders bottom formation, though the price has not yet touched the neckline resistance area.

This scenario suggests the potential for a market correction in the near future.

1-Hour Chart Insights

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Referencing the 1-hour chart, Ultima Markets’ pivot indicator designates the central price of the day as 1.05565. To navigate these levels effectively:

• Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.05565, with the first target at 1.05937 and the second target at 1.06114.

• On the other hand, a bearish stance should be taken below 1.05565, targeting 1.05392 as the first level and 1.05019 as the second.

Conclusion

In summary, the EUR/USD market in October 2023 is subject to a dynamic interplay of fundamental and technical factors.

Rising U.S. Treasury yields and the potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance are fundamental drivers, while technical indicators suggest the possibility of a market decline and the formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern.

Traders and investors are advised to exercise vigilance and closely monitor these developments, considering both fundamental and technical aspects.

Staying well-informed and adapting strategies accordingly is crucial for navigating the ever-evolving landscape of currency trading effectively.

For personalized investment guidance, consult our team of experts at Ultima Markets.

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

BYD Overtakes Ford in August Car Sales: What Does It Mean for the Auto Industry?

According to TrendForce report, car sales in 37 markets around the world totaled 5.55 million units in August 2023, an increase of nearly 1% from July. The growth momentum came from the launch of new models for the autumn. 

(August Ranking of Auto Brand Sales Share)

The composition of the top ten brands is the same as last month. The top three are Toyota, Volkswagen, and Honda. The Chinese car manufacturer BYD replaced Ford and became the fourth-largest brand in August car sales.

BYD’s Remarkable Growth

BYD has converted all its models to new energy vehicles, so the lukewarm domestic demand in the Chinese market has less impact on it. BYD recorded a MOM growth of 5%, and the market share was only 0.1% behind the third-placed Honda.

However, Japanese car manufacturers also have contributions from markets such as Southeast Asia. Consequently, for BYD to surpass Honda in the global market, the key is its expansion speed in overseas markets.

Ford’s Decline in August Sales

Ford’s ranking fell to sixth place due to lower sales in Europe and the United States compared with the previous month, with sales declining by 6.7% month-on-month.  

Challenges and Variables in 2H23

Although the launch of autumn models will help new car sales, there are still many variables in 2H23, including the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike that has not yet ended; OPEC+ allies’ crude oil production cuts, etc.

Strategies for the Fourth Quarter

As the fourth quarter approaches, auto manufacturers will do their best to ensure smooth production, fulfill orders, and stimulate year-end sales, minimizing the impact of reduced order visibility caused by economic changes. 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive USDX Analysis for October 6, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDX for 6th October 2023. 

The Core: Fundamental Factors

• ADP Employment Data: Recent ADP employment data showed a significant drop below expectations. This is a crucial indicator of labor market dynamics.
• Historically Low Jobless Claims: The announcement of 207,000 initial jobless claims last week, still at a historical low, underscores the robustness of the job market.
• Fewest Quarterly Layoffs: U.S. companies have reported the fewest quarterly layoffs in a year due to strong seasonal hiring plans. This is a significant positive signal for the economy.

The Turning Point: Interest Rates

The above factors collectively raise questions about the possibility of interest rate adjustments in the near future. The final decision hinges on the impending release of US non-farm employment data, due tonight. This data will be pivotal in shaping the USDX’s trajectory.

The Technical Aspect: USDX Trends

• Daily Chart Trends: On the daily chart, the US dollar index has experienced a two-day decline. The stochastic oscillator’s dead cross in the overbought area suggests a short-term downtrend.
• Bearish Trend: To confirm a bear trend, it’s crucial for the USDX to break effectively below its recent lows. The initial target rests near the blue 17-day moving average.
• Hourly Chart Insights: On the hourly chart, the market has breached the support level around 106.23. The ATR combination indicator confirms this breakdown.
• Pivot Indicator: As per Ultima Markets’ pivot indicator, the central price for the day is 106.200.

Daily chart of USDX

(Daily chart of USDX, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

1-hour chart of USDX

Although it has increased the probability of a bear trend, it still needs to wait for the U.S. dollar index to effectively fall below the lowest price. The price may be relatively limited. The first target is near the blue 17-day moving average. 

(1-hour chart of USDX, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Pivot Indicators

On the 1-hour chart, the market fell below the support level around 106.23, and the ATR combination indicator hinted at the effectiveness of the breakdown. Waiting for the price to retreat and see if there is any chance of further downward movement. 

(Pivot Indicators for USDX, source: Ultima Markets MT4)

Potential Scenarios

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is 106.200. 

• Bullish Above 106.200: If the USDX remains above 106.200, the first target is 106.363, with a secondary target at 106.755.
• Bearish Below 106.200: In case the USDX dips below 106.200, the initial target is 105.805, with a secondary target at 105.640.

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

Disappointing ADP Job Report’s Impact on USD | October 2023 Analysis

According to ADP® National Employment’s September 2023 Report, Private businesses in the US hired 89K workers in September 2023, the least since January 2021 when private employers shed jobs, and well below market forecasts of 153K. It follows a revised 180K increase in August, compared to an initial 177K.

Large establishments drove the slowdown, losing 83K jobs and wiping out gains they made in August. On the other hand, small companies added 95K jobs and mid-sized ones 72K. Meanwhile, annual wage growth slowed to 5.9%, the 12th consecutive monthly decline. Pay gains also shrank for job changers to 9%. 

(US Employment Changes, ADP)

The dollar index fell below the 107.0 mark on Wednesday, following the release of a disappointing ADP jobs report. Nevertheless, the dollar remained near its strongest level since November 2022, bolstered by hawkish comments from Fed officials that continue to reinforce expectations of elevated interest rates for an extended period. 

(U.S. Dollar Index DXY)

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive USD/CAD Analysis For October 5, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USD/CAD for 5th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways

• U.S. Economic Data: The release of subpar U.S. economic data acted as a catalyst for market movements. This data sent shockwaves through the forex market, causing traders to react by selling off the U.S. dollar.
• Crude Oil Market: Another significant factor was the impending destruction of crude oil demand. This development, coupled with the gloomy macroeconomic outlook, played a substantial role in shaping the forex landscape. As crude oil prices began to fall, the depreciation of currencies in energy-exporting countries gained momentum.
• Canadian Dollar’s Depreciation: The Canadian dollar, in particular, saw a short-term depreciation trend that intensified due to the interplay of these factors.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Weekly Chart

The weekly chart of USD/CAD in October 2023 revealed a pivotal development. The closing line for the week was on the verge of breaking through the suppression of the downward trend line, which had been in place since October of the previous year. Furthermore, the stochastic oscillator was on the cusp of reaffirming the upward trend.

(Weekly chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, we identified a weakening of prices following the recent breach of the weekly downward trend line. The stochastic oscillator displayed a divergent downward trend, indicating that the exchange rate was likely entering an adjustment cycle.

(4-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

USD/CAD 1-Hour Chart Insights

On the 1-hour chart, the 23.6% retracement level at 1.36923 emerged as an extremely critical support price. This level could potentially mark the end of the downward trend. Conversely, falling below this level would signify a breach of the weekly downward trend line, casting doubts on the legitimacy of the recent upward trend.

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

USD/CAD Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1.37375. 

• Bullish above 1.37375, the first target is 1.37846, the second target is 1.38264 
• Bearish below 1.37375, first target 1.36966, second target 1.36495 

Conclusion

In conclusion, October 2023 brought about a series of significant fundamental and technical developments in the USD/CAD forex market. Traders were faced with key decision points, influenced by a variety of factors, from U.S. economic data to crude oil prices.

The forex market remains inherently volatile, emphasizing the importance of informed, strategic, and responsive trading decisions.

At Ultima Markets, we are committed to providing valuable market insights to empower your trading decisions.

While this article offers a comprehensive overview of the USD/CAD situation in October 2023, it’s essential to keep a watchful eye on market developments and continue refining your trading strategies to stay ahead in the competitive world of forex trading.

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

Global Mobile Phone Production Decline in 2H23: Insights and Analysis

According to a TrendForce survey, after global smartphone production fell by nearly 20% year-on-year in the first quarter, production continued to decline by approximately 6.6% in the second quarter, to only 270 million units.

A total of 520 million smartphones were produced in the first half of 2023, a 13.3% decline compared to the same period last year. Both individual quarters and the first half of the year in total set a ten-year low. 

Factors Influencing Mobile Phone Production Decline

There are three reasons for the sluggish production performance:

1. China’s lifting of epidemic prevention restrictions has not boosted demand as expected.

2. The demographic dividend effect of the emerging Indian market has not effectively exerted its advantages. 

3. In 2022, brand names were severely hampered by excessive channel inventory. It was originally expected that as the inventory reduced, brand names would have returned to normal production levels. However, affected by the weak economy, people’s consumption willingness is more conservative, resulting in production performance in the first half of the year being less than expected. 

Top Six Global Smartphone Brands Challenges and Channel Inventory

(2Q23 global smartphone production and market share ranking) 

Samsung’s production performance in the second quarter was not as good as the same period last year. The total production in the second quarter was 53.9 million units, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.4%, but it still ranked first in production.  

Apple is facing the transition of new and old models. The second quarter is probably the lowest production performance among the four quarters, with output of 42 million units, a quarter-to-quarter decrease of 21.2%. It is worth noting that Samsung and Apple are quite close in their full-year production forecasts. If the iPhone 15 series performs better than market expectations, it may overtake Samsung to become the number one brand in the global market.

Xiaomi’s output in the second quarter was approximately 35 million units, a quarterly increase of 32.1%, driven by the gradual decline in channel inventory and the launch of new models.  

A special change in the ranking is that Transsion overtook Vivo and entered fifth place in the world for the first time. Its production volume increased by more than 70% quarter-on-quarter to 25.1 million units.  

Outlook for the Global Smartphone Market

The overall economy has not fully recovered in the second half of the year, and demand in consumer markets such as China, Europe and the United States has not yet recovered significantly. Even if the economic indicators of the Indian market improve, it is still difficult to reverse the decline in global smartphone production.  

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.