Comprehensive XAU/USD Analysis for October 13, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the XAU/USD for 17th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• Market sentiment: The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is still ongoing, and the conflict may continue for a long time. As a result, short-term market risk appetite recovered, and gold prices fell slightly. 
• The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is reduced: Federal Reserve Board member Harker continues to be dovish, reiterating that the Federal Reserve should not consider further raising interest rates and that inflation is expected to weaken. The probability of not raising interest rates in November is over 90%, and the probability of raising interest rates in December is only 30%. 

XAU/USD Technical Analysis 

XAU/USD Weekly Chart Insights 

• Price action: The bar showed a bullish price action, but it still needs to wait for this week to break through last week’s high. 
• Stochastic Oscillator: The fast line has crossed the slow line, suggesting that the bulls are currently dominant. When entering the market, you need to wait patiently for the price to break through last week’s high. 

XAU/USD Daily Chart Analysis 

• Elliot Wave: The rapid rise since last Friday is temporarily regarded as motive wave 1, and the internal wave structure is obviously incomplete. This means that the market will continue its upward trend after short-term adjustments. The target looks towards the end point of the double zigzag wave X, which is the key price level. 
• Joint resistance area: In addition to the double-zigzag wave, the early neckline extension will also be near the price. It needs to wait for the market to completely break through this resistance range. At that time, short-term long positions may be closed and exited near this price. 
• Stochastic oscillator: Technical indicators have just entered the overbought zone, and the market’s bull momentum is still very strong. You need to switch to a smaller period chart and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the market at any time. 

Ultima Markets Pivot Indicator 

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1919.52, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1919.52, first target 1930.51, second target 1941.23; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1919.52, first target 1908.93, second target 1897.81. 

Conclusion 

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Focus on XAU/USD today. 

Fundamentally, there has been a large divergence between China’s domestic gold prices and international gold prices recently, but the bullish drive for domestic gold is mostly due to the depreciation of the local currency and the impact of restrictions on gold imports. It is difficult for international gold prices to be driven by this, but as the monetary policies of various countries come to an end, in line with expectations of falling inflation and economic downturn, international gold prices have certain upward momentum. At present, the market still needs a stimulus to allow gold prices to start a long-term bull trend again. 

Technically, the cross of the stochastic oscillator on the gold daily chart has been established, suggesting the arrival of a bullish trend. 

( Daily chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The market has ushered in a rebound trend since it hit the 200-day moving average last Thursday. However, it is worth noting that the top is about to hit the downward trend line, and the remaining rebound space is relatively narrow. 

(4-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, the stochastic oscillator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting that potential gold bulls may be blocked. However, judging from the chart, after the market hit the 200-period moving average, the large entity of candle bar broke through the consolidation range since last Friday, and there is a high probability that the bullish trend will continue in the Asian session.

 (1-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1930.16. 

Bullish above 1930.16, the first target is 1937.62, and the second target is 1941.74 

Bearish below 1930.16, first target 1925.98, second target 1918.40 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.