Comprehensive AUD/USD for November 7, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUD/USD for 7th November 2023. 

Key Takeaways

• Changes in the RBA’s monetary policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest interest rate decision at noon. Due to the unexpectedly strong CPI in Australia in the third quarter and the rebound in housing prices to near record highs, the market expects that the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates by 25 basis points this week reaches 60% %. On the contrary, if there is no sign of tightening in monetary policy, AUD/USD will enter a rapid downward trend. 
• Bullock has a hawkish attitude: The new chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bullock, said in a public speech that “if the inflation outlook shows a substantial increase, we will not hesitate to further raise the cash rate.” Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will resume raising interest rates have triggered a strong rise in the Australian dollar recently. 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis 

AUD/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has entered the overbought area, indicating the strength of the current bullish trend. Although there were signs of a reversal yesterday, we cannot judge that a reversal is coming without confirmation. 
• Moving average: After the exchange rate strongly breaks through the 33-day moving average and the 65-day moving average, it hints that the current bullish trend is coming, and the resistance level is looking towards the 200-day moving average (dashed line). There is a certain probability of going back to the green 5-day moving average. 

AUD / USD 1-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator is still in the oversold area. Judging from the market trend, it is currently in the consolidation stage. Wait for the indicator to show a long signal before paying attention to whether there are trading opportunities. 
• Price Action: After consolidation for two trading days, the market formed a rectangular range. After falling below the range, the exchange rate will most likely continue to decline in the short term. Pay attention to the support price below. 
• Support price: The red 65-period moving average is the first target support level. If the market enters a deep correction, continue to look at the upper edge of the upward channel line. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 0.64993, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.64993, first target 0.65131, second target 0.65371; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.64993, first target 0.64752, second target 0.64608. 

Conclusion 

Comprehensive AUD/USD Analysis for September 28, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of AUD/USD for 28th September 2023. 

Key Takeaways

• Australian Inflation: Australian inflation reached a notable 5.2% in September 2023, in line with market expectations. This marked a significant uptick since June and is primarily attributed to the depreciation of the Australian dollar and rising oil prices.
• Market Perception: The market’s consensus was that these inflationary pressures, while substantial, would not be adequate to persuade the RBA to pursue an interest rate hike strategy. As a result, the initial reaction in the currency markets was mixed. The Australian dollar experienced a short-lived appreciation, but the prevailing sentiment soon led to a decline.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Impact

• Short-Term Outlook: The short-term Australian data had a limited impact on the currency pair. Market attention swiftly shifted to the United States, with a specific focus on the core PCE data. Should this data continue to show an upward trend, it could maintain the possibility of interest rate hikes during the year, consequently bolstering the US dollar.
• Budgetary Concerns: However, the situation in the United States presents a significant variable. The fiscal year for 2023 is concluding, and if political parties fail to reach an agreement on the budget, the risk of a government shutdown looms large. In such an event, the market may seize the opportunity to speculate on a weakening US dollar.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Chart Analysis

(Daily chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Significant Decline: The daily chart indicated an expected decline in the exchange rate following the inflation data release. Subsequently, the market exhibited a distinctive Wolfe wave pattern, which carries the potential for a substantial rebound. It’s important to note that this pattern does not signify a definitive trend reversal at this stage.

AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis

(4-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Divergence Structure: Transitioning to the 4-hour chart, the price decline led to the formation of a stochastic divergence pattern. This suggests that sellers may find motivation to close their positions and exit at the support level. Observing the influence of the 33-period moving average is crucial.

AUD/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4)

Critical Zone: Within the 1-hour timeframe, the area around 0.63853 is a crucial support and resistance conversion zone. This level is also proximate to the 65-period moving average. A potential breakout above this resistance level may pose challenges for the Australian dollar in maintaining its downward trajectory for the day.

Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4)

Key Price Levels: According to the pivot indicator within Ultima Markets MT4, the central price for the day stands at 0.63638.

• In bullish scenarios above this level, the first target is 0.63977, and the second target extends to 0.64422.
• In bearish scenarios below 0.63638, the first target is 0.63204, with the second target at 0.62868.

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Disclaimer

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Comprehensive AUD/USD Analysis for September 27, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUD/USD for 27th September 2023. 

Key Takeaways

Fundamentally, our analysis centers on the forthcoming release of Australia’s August CPI data and its potential repercussions for the AUD/USD market. Key takeaways include:

• Inflation Expectations: Market consensus points to a potential inflation rise from 4.9% in July to 5.2% in August, fueling discussions on impending interest rate hikes.
• Drivers of Inflation: The depreciation of the Australian dollar and escalating oil prices are identified as the driving forces behind the expected inflation surge.
• RBA’s Dilemma: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces the pivotal decision of whether to implement interest rate hikes, with market expectations influencing their stance.
• Market Reaction: Anticipate a post-data release rebound in the Australian dollar, though the sustainability of this uptrend remains uncertain.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Chart Analysis

( Daily chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the daily chart, the U.S. dollar index has exhibited a notable upward trajectory. Key technical observations include:

• Breakthrough: The U.S. dollar index has closed above the upper boundary of its consolidation range.
• Stochastic Oscillator: An upward cross on the stochastic oscillator underscores the bullish trend in the U.S. dollar index.

AUD/USD 4-hour Chart Observations

(4-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Shifting focus to the 4-hour chart, we identify essential technical aspects that inform market dynamics:

• Previous High Breakthrough: Following a 12-day consolidation phase after the U.S. dollar index surpassed its previous high on September 5, it has continued its upward course.

1-hour Chart and ATR Combination Indicator

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The 1-hour chart and the ATR combination indicator offer granular insights into the market:

• Breakthrough Effectiveness: The ATR combination indicator supports the effectiveness of the U.S. dollar index breakthrough.
• Potential Retracement: During the Asian session, a retracement is anticipated, necessitating patience from traders. The initial target is set at 105.443.

Pivot Indicator Analysis

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Ultima Markets MT4’s pivot indicator serves as a vital reference point for traders:

• Central Price: The central price for the day is positioned at 105.527.
• Bullish Scenario: A bullish outlook prevails above 105.527, with the first target at 105.874 and the second target at 106.123.
• Bearish Scenario: Conversely, in a bearish scenario below 105.527, the first target is 105.282, with the second target at 104.937.

Conclusion

Comprehensive AUD/USD Analysis for September 21, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUD/USD for 21st September 2023.

Key Takeaways

Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy: Key to understanding this dynamic currency pair is the recent decision by the Federal Reserve.

In September, they opted to halt interest rate hikes. Notably, the dot plot still indicates the potential for rate increases later in the year.

Looking ahead, the monetary policy for the following year leans towards a more hawkish stance, with the likelihood of a shift from 5 interest rate cuts to just 2.

These developments have bolstered the US dollar, placing non-US currencies at a short-term disadvantage.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Understanding the technical aspects of AUD/USD is paramount for making informed trading decisions. Here, we provide an exhaustive analysis of the charts, offering a comprehensive view of the current scenario.

AUD/USD Daily Chart Analysis

( Daily chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The daily chart reveals a noteworthy pin bar formation in the Australian dollar against the US dollar, following contact with the 33-day moving average.

This development carries significance, particularly given the robust position of the US dollar, which may exert further downward pressure on the exchange rate.

Analyzing the AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart

(4-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Structurally, the market has formed a platform corrective wave, indicating a probability of the ongoing downward trend.

This insight is invaluable for anticipating market dynamics and making well-informed trading decisions.

Ultima Markets Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Ultima Markets MT4’s pivot indicator places the central price for the day at 0.64657. To assist your trading strategies, we outline bullish and bearish scenarios:

Bullish above 0.64657, targeting 0.64926 as the first objective and 0.65377 as the second.

Bearish below 0.64657, with the initial target set at 0.64216 and the subsequent target at 0.63949.

Conclusion