Federal Reserve Interest Rate Stability

The Federal Reserve (FED) held rates still at 5.25 to 5.5%. Chairman Powell said at a press conference after the meeting, “We will continue to make interest rate decisions on a case-by-case basis based on all data and the impact on economic activity and the outlook for inflation. ” 

Chairman Powell’s Insights

Powell said that there is still great uncertainty about the timing of interest rate cuts. The forecast for 2024 is only a current estimate.

He believes that the time for interest rate cuts in 2024 will always come, but he said that he would not specify a specific time. He believes that the labor market will eventually weaken, but must proceed with caution, believing that the failure to restore price stability is a more serious problem. 

Interest Rate Projections

Judging from the interest projections released with the statement, the FED is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points this year, with interest rates peaking at 5.50%-5.75 %.

Technology stocks will be under increasing pressure as rising interest rates push up bond yields, attracting investors to shift more cash into the bond market. 

(FOMC interest rate target level, FOMC) 

Revised GDP Forecasts

The FED believes that the U.S. economy is improving and has revised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast upward to 2.1% from the 1.0% forecast in June. It has also revised the GDP forecast from 1.1% to 1.5% for 2024. The forecast value for 2026 was first announced at 1.8%.  

(GDP Forecast, FOMC) 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and revise GDP forecasts upwards in October 2023 is a clear indication of its faith in the U.S. economic outlook.

The FED’s cautious approach to interest rates, its commitment to data-driven decision-making, and its unwavering focus on price stability will play pivotal roles in steering the nation toward sustainable economic growth and stability in the years to come.

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Japan’s Semiconductor Slowdown: Impact on the Economy

Japan’s Ministry of Finance released import and export data for August, which showed weak demand from China and semiconductor equipment.

The export value fell 0.8% from the same month last year to 7,994.3 billion yen due to reduced exports of semiconductor machinery (-36.3%), organic chemicals (-19.1%), and fossil fuels (-63.7%). It fell into contraction for the second consecutive month. 

(Exports YoY, Mo F Japan) 

Import Challenges

Japan’s imports fell 17.8% year-on-year to 8,924.82 billion yen, the fifth month of decline since August 2020 and the largest decrease since August 2020, dragged down by energy costs mainly.

The value of imports decreased due to the import of crude (- 25.5%), liquefied natural gas (-43.0%), and coal (-48.6%). 

(Imports YoY, Mo F Japan) 

Trade Deficit Dynamics

Japan’s trade deficit decreased sharply to JPY 930.5 billion in August 2023 from JPY 2,790.4 billion in the same month a year earlier, compared with market estimates of a shortfall of JPY 659.1 billion.

Exports fell by 0.8% yoy to JPY 7,994.4 billion, the second straight month of drop, amid weak foreign demand, particularly from China; while imports slumped 17.8% to JPY 8,924.8 billion, the fifth consecutive month of fall and the steepest pace since August 2020, weighed down by energy cost and strong yen. 

(Balance of Trade, Mo F Japan) 

Implications and Conclusion

In conclusion, Japan’s economic woes are inextricably linked to the semiconductor slowdown and the declining demand from China.

This hierarchical structure conveys the central message efficiently, with supporting details that provide a comprehensive understanding of the economic challenges at hand.

To overcome these challenges and pave the way for future growth and stability, Japan must address the decline in crucial export sectors, navigate import challenges posed by energy costs, and develop strategies to mitigate the trade deficit impact.

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Focus on EUR/USD today. 

Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, and it is basically a certainty that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, since the Federal Reserve will also release its latest Summary of Economic Predictions(SEP), the dot plot is the focus of the market’s attention.  

The most debated question right now is whether the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of the year, and whether the monetary policy in 2024 will change the stance taken in June and a more conservative interest rate path will be adopted. These all affect the direction of the U.S. dollar index. If the Federal Reserve changes its stance on interest rate cuts in 2024, the U.S. dollar index will fall significantly. Otherwise, the U.S. dollar index will further break through the high point. 

Technically, although the stochastic oscillator has crossed upward on the daily chart, the exchange rate has always been suppressed by the 5-day moving average, and the market is more likely to form a consolidation range. 

( Daily chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The candle bar yesterday was a pin bar, so the structure today is more important. If it breaks through yesterday’s high, the market’s rebound space will further look closer to the 200-day moving average; if a large physical candle bar closes today, the exchange rate may fall further. 

(4-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, after the market hit the resistance area composed of the 65-day moving average and the 33-day moving average, the stochastic oscillator began to cross downward. Structurally, the EURUSD has formed a relatively clear rising flag-shaped consolidation area, and there is a certain probability that the short trend will continue after falling below it. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

If you look at the 1-hour chart structure, you will find it is clearer. As the stochastic oscillator remains in oversold territory, the Asian session may remain consolidated. You need to wait patiently for the price to fall below yesterday’s low and the lower edge of the flag channel, and then switch to a smaller cycle to look for intraday entry opportunities.

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is 1.06908. 

Bullish above 1.06908, first target 1.07063, second target 1.07334 

Bearish below 1.06908, first target 1.06635, second target 1.06477 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on XAU/USD today. 

Fundamentally, there has been a large divergence between China’s domestic gold prices and international gold prices recently, but the bullish drive for domestic gold is mostly due to the depreciation of the local currency and the impact of restrictions on gold imports. It is difficult for international gold prices to be driven by this, but as the monetary policies of various countries come to an end, in line with expectations of falling inflation and economic downturn, international gold prices have certain upward momentum. At present, the market still needs a stimulus to allow gold prices to start a long-term bull trend again. 

Technically, the cross of the stochastic oscillator on the gold daily chart has been established, suggesting the arrival of a bullish trend. 

( Daily chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The market has ushered in a rebound trend since it hit the 200-day moving average last Thursday. However, it is worth noting that the top is about to hit the downward trend line, and the remaining rebound space is relatively narrow. 

(4-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, the stochastic oscillator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting that potential gold bulls may be blocked. However, judging from the chart, after the market hit the 200-period moving average, the large entity of candle bar broke through the consolidation range since last Friday, and there is a high probability that the bullish trend will continue in the Asian session.

 (1-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1930.16. 

Bullish above 1930.16, the first target is 1937.62, and the second target is 1941.74 

Bearish below 1930.16, first target 1925.98, second target 1918.40 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Mastering Holiday Spending in Times of Economic Uncertainty

A new CNBC-Morning Consult survey has found that 92% of adults have reduced their spending over the past six months, and plan to spend less through the holidays. 

The Core Insight

Consumers remain cautious in their spending due to job insecurity and inflation. The most common categories for spending cuts over the past six months were clothing and apparel (63%), restaurants and bars (62%), and entertainment outside the house (56%), a pattern that held steady from our June survey. The next biggest categories for cuts were groceries (54%), recreational travel and vacations (53%), and electronics (50%.) 

Looking ahead to the holiday shopping season, a warning for retailers: More than three-quarters of all U.S. adults surveyed (76%) plan to cut back on spending for non-essential items, and 62% expect to cut back on essential items “sometimes” or “more often” over the next six months, the survey found. 

Just how acutely consumers reported feeling the impact of the current economic situation varied among socio-economic groups. And it wasn’t always those making the least that reported feeling most pinched. 

Impact Across Socio-Economic Groups

More than half (55%) of households earning $50,000 or less (lower-income) said they’re feeling the impact of the economy on their personal finances, while 61% of households with $50,000 to $100,000 (middle-income) and 46% of households making at least $100,000 (higher-income) reported the same. 

However, Higher-income households are in fact moving toward feeling that the economic situation is having a positive impact, the survey reports 30% in September, up from 21% in June. 

Conclusion

In light of the economic uncertainty, a significant portion of Americans is adjusting their spending habits, especially as they approach the holiday season.

While these changes in consumer behavior pose challenges, they also offer opportunities for individuals to reevaluate their financial priorities and develop prudent spending habits.

By following these strategies and adapting to the current economic landscape, you can make the most of the holiday season while safeguarding your financial well-being.

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

The European Central Bank’s Recent Interest Rate Hike and Its Impact on the Euro

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised the three key interest rates by 25 bps.

Starting from September 20, 2023, the marginal lending facility, main refinancing operations, and deposit facility will increase to 4.75%, 4.50%, and 4.00% respectively, setting a record since the euro was introduced in 1999. 

(Latest ECB interest rate, ECB) 

A Historic Interest Rate Shift in ECB

The ECB raised the benchmark interest rate from a historical low of -0.5% to the current record high in 20 years and 14 months.

Although Eurozone inflation has cooled, reaching 5.3% in August, the same as in July, it is still far beyond the 2% target. Rising interest rates put pressure on the euro, which fell to its lowest level against the dollar in five months. 

(EUR /US YTD Chart) 

ECB’s Inflation Control and Economic Growth Prospects

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said at the press conference that inflation in the eurozone has been hovering at a high level for too long, core inflation is still too high, and food and energy costs continue to put upward pressure on prices.

She reiterated that the ECB is committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. At the same time, the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% this year, 1% next year, and 1.5% in 2025, which is lower than the previous forecast growth of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.6%. 

The Global Implications

The ECB’s move has not only had a profound impact on the Eurozone but has also sent ripples across the global financial landscape. It underscores the central bank’s unwavering commitment to achieving price stability, even at the expense of economic growth prospects.

In conclusion, the ECB’s decision to raise interest rates to their highest levels in over two decades is a clear signal of its determination to tackle inflation. While this move may have consequences for the Euro and economic growth in the short term, it demonstrates the central bank’s commitment to maintaining price stability in the Eurozone.

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Unveiling the Robust U.S. Economic Landscape Ahead of the Federal Reserve Meeting

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released three statistical reports on September 14: 

1. Retail sales 

U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis higher than market expectations, and the annual growth rate increased from 2.6% to 2.5%. Retail sales in August were mainly driven by the sharp increase in gas station sales mom from 0.1% to 5.2%, reflecting the rebound in oil prices.

Other categories also generally showed positive growth, with more significant increases including automobiles and parts from -0.4% to 0.3%, electronics Supplies -1.1%→0.7%, and dining out and catering 0.8%→0.3% showed a slowdown.

Overall, retail sales in August were partly due to the recovery in gasoline prices, but retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline were also higher than market expectations. (0.2% vs. 0.1%), the control group dropped from 0.7% to 0.1%, which was still better than the market expectation of -0.1%, highlighting that the US consumer market is still strong. 

(Retail Sales data, BLS) 

2. Initial jobless claims 

Last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 3,000 from 217,000 to 220,000, lower than the expected 225,000.

The number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits in the previous week increased by 4,000 from 1.684 million to 1.688 million, which was lower than the market estimate of 1.69 million people, showing that the job market is cooling more slowly than expected. 

(Initial Jobless Claims, BLS) 

3. PPI (Producer Price Index)

The August producer price index (PPI) increased by 1.6% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 1.2% and the previous value of 0.8%, growing for the second consecutive month.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the August core PPI rose by 2.2% YoY, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 2.4%.

The growth of PPI in August was mainly driven by rising energy and transportation costs.  

(Core PPI, BLS) 

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Focus on USD/CAD today. 

Fundamentally, the continued rise in oil prices this week has driven market demand for the Canadian dollar and promoted the appreciation of the Canadian dollar. This has also made the implementation of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy more difficult to a certain extent. In the short term, oil prices affect the appreciation trend of the Canadian dollar. However, as Canada’s real per capita GDP shrank year-on-year in the second quarter, the unemployment rate began to rise in May, and coupled with the continued drag on mortgage loan renewals, Canada’s price level may go downward. Therefore, if there are no unexpected changes in supply and demand in the crude oil market, it may be difficult to change the Bank of Canada’s stance of keeping interest rates unchanged at the October meeting.

Technically, the downward trend line on the weekly chart of USD/CAD effectively prevents the exchange rate from rising further. After encountering resistance last week, it has entered a downward trend this week. However, the stochastic oscillator has a clear short signal, and we need to wait for the final closing today. 

(Weekly chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The market has started an upward trend since hitting the 200-week moving average in mid-August. Based on the complete five-wave structure of the entire upward trend, the current decline is temporarily judged to be an adjustment structure of the previous upward trend. After sufficient adjustment, the Canadian dollar may further depreciate. 

(Daily chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the daily chart, the rate has reached a very critical support position against the Canadian dollar. The market finally retreated after the stochastic oscillator signaled a double divergence. At present, it has fallen to near the 33-day moving average. The clear top structure means that the current support position is a strong resistance area, and bulls may usher in a “counterattack” in this area during the day. 

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 1-hour chart, the oscillator also sent out a bottom divergence signal yesterday, and the market is likely to consolidate or rebound in the short term. If the market breaks through 1.35173 during the Asian session, traders can focus on rebound trading opportunities during the day. The first target is around the red 65 moving average. 

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1.35173. 

Bullish above 1.35173, the first target is 1.35422, the second target is 1.35789 

Bearish below 1.35173, first target 1.34816, second target 1.34570 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Understanding the Surprising Rise in U.S. Inflation Data

On September 13^th, the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market estimate of 3.6%, and higher than the previous value of 3.2%.

However, excluding food and energy Core CPI increased by 4.3% YoY, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 4.7%. It was the smallest increase in the past two years, but it was still higher than the Fed’s 2% target. 

(U.S. Consumer Price Index CPI) 

Understanding the Drivers

Examining the report details, energy was the main driver for the growth of CPI in August, accounting for more than half of the CPI increase. On a monthly basis, the growth rate of 5.6% was much higher than the 0.1% growth rate last month.

Separately, on an annual basis, housing prices increased by 7.3% in August, accounting for more than 70% of core CPI. However, the housing inflation rate is falling sharply, and the slowdown in growth has become more obvious.

In August, transportation (10.3%) beat housing for the first time and became the biggest driver of core CPI.

The production cuts by OPEC+ and the threat of strikes by the United Auto Workers against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis are all creating variables in the fight against inflation.  

Implications for Monetary Policy

This CPI report is the last important economic data to be seen before the Fed’s monetary policy meeting next week.

CME Group The FedWatch Tool shows that the interest rate futures market predicts a 97% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged next week and only a 3% chance of raising interest rates by 25 bps.

However, the chances of keeping interest rates unchanged and raising interest rates by 1% at the November meeting are respectively 60% and nearly 40%. 

(Detailed classification MoM % & YoY%, US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS ) 

Conclusion

In summary, the unanticipated rise in U.S. inflation data for August 2023 raises critical questions and concerns.

As we explore the drivers behind this increase and the potential impact on monetary policy, it is evident that the economic landscape is evolving rapidly.

Market participants and policymakers must remain vigilant and adaptable in the face of dynamic conditions.

The coming months promise to be pivotal as we witness the Federal Reserve’s response to these unforeseen developments and their broader economic implications.

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Focus on EUR/USD today. 

Fundamentally, Traders will pay more attention to European Central Bank interest rate decision tonight. As the Eurozone’s second-quarter GDP growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.1%, the latest PMI data also showed that economic activity in the service industry and manufacturing industry shrank intensified in August. The sluggish economy coupled with high inflation and the haze of stagflation make interest rate decision of the European Central Bank full of suspense. If the European Central Bank chooses to pause interest rate hikes for the first time in this year,  without additional hawkish comments, the euro may fall further against the dollar. 

Technically, the euro’s short trend has temporarily gained the upper hand on daily chart. The 200-day moving average has been exceeded, the exchange rate is completely below the 200-day moving average, and the 33-day moving average and the 65-day moving average have also formed a dead cross downward. 

( Daily chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

It is worth noting that when the short-term moving average group is close to the 200-day moving average, the market is likely to fluctuate. A complete short trend requires waiting for the short-term moving average group to fall below the 200-day moving average as well. Therefore, although the market started to rise this week, it is currently judged to be a rebound, and the rebound is weak. 

(4-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, the overlap between 1.07665 and the 65-period moving average is a strong resistance area, and the market failed to break through twice. Before the market completely rises above this resistance, the power of shorts will always be slightly stronger than that of bulls. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 1-hour chart, the flag-shaped area is still in progress. For trading opportunities, traders need to wait for the signal of the stochastic oscillator, or the market falls below the previous low. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1.07351. 

Bullish above 1.07351, first target 1.07595, second target 1.07893 

Bearish below 1.07351, first target is 1.07056, second target is 1.06813 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.