Comprehensive USDX Analysis for October 6, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDX for 6th October 2023. 

The Core: Fundamental Factors

• ADP Employment Data: Recent ADP employment data showed a significant drop below expectations. This is a crucial indicator of labor market dynamics.
• Historically Low Jobless Claims: The announcement of 207,000 initial jobless claims last week, still at a historical low, underscores the robustness of the job market.
• Fewest Quarterly Layoffs: U.S. companies have reported the fewest quarterly layoffs in a year due to strong seasonal hiring plans. This is a significant positive signal for the economy.

The Turning Point: Interest Rates

The above factors collectively raise questions about the possibility of interest rate adjustments in the near future. The final decision hinges on the impending release of US non-farm employment data, due tonight. This data will be pivotal in shaping the USDX’s trajectory.

The Technical Aspect: USDX Trends

• Daily Chart Trends: On the daily chart, the US dollar index has experienced a two-day decline. The stochastic oscillator’s dead cross in the overbought area suggests a short-term downtrend.
• Bearish Trend: To confirm a bear trend, it’s crucial for the USDX to break effectively below its recent lows. The initial target rests near the blue 17-day moving average.
• Hourly Chart Insights: On the hourly chart, the market has breached the support level around 106.23. The ATR combination indicator confirms this breakdown.
• Pivot Indicator: As per Ultima Markets’ pivot indicator, the central price for the day is 106.200.

Daily chart of USDX

(Daily chart of USDX, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

1-hour chart of USDX

Although it has increased the probability of a bear trend, it still needs to wait for the U.S. dollar index to effectively fall below the lowest price. The price may be relatively limited. The first target is near the blue 17-day moving average. 

(1-hour chart of USDX, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Pivot Indicators

On the 1-hour chart, the market fell below the support level around 106.23, and the ATR combination indicator hinted at the effectiveness of the breakdown. Waiting for the price to retreat and see if there is any chance of further downward movement. 

(Pivot Indicators for USDX, source: Ultima Markets MT4)

Potential Scenarios

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is 106.200. 

• Bullish Above 106.200: If the USDX remains above 106.200, the first target is 106.363, with a secondary target at 106.755.
• Bearish Below 106.200: In case the USDX dips below 106.200, the initial target is 105.805, with a secondary target at 105.640.

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Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

Disappointing ADP Job Report’s Impact on USD | October 2023 Analysis

According to ADP® National Employment’s September 2023 Report, Private businesses in the US hired 89K workers in September 2023, the least since January 2021 when private employers shed jobs, and well below market forecasts of 153K. It follows a revised 180K increase in August, compared to an initial 177K.

Large establishments drove the slowdown, losing 83K jobs and wiping out gains they made in August. On the other hand, small companies added 95K jobs and mid-sized ones 72K. Meanwhile, annual wage growth slowed to 5.9%, the 12th consecutive monthly decline. Pay gains also shrank for job changers to 9%. 

(US Employment Changes, ADP)

The dollar index fell below the 107.0 mark on Wednesday, following the release of a disappointing ADP jobs report. Nevertheless, the dollar remained near its strongest level since November 2022, bolstered by hawkish comments from Fed officials that continue to reinforce expectations of elevated interest rates for an extended period. 

(U.S. Dollar Index DXY)

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive USD/CAD Analysis For October 5, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USD/CAD for 5th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways

• U.S. Economic Data: The release of subpar U.S. economic data acted as a catalyst for market movements. This data sent shockwaves through the forex market, causing traders to react by selling off the U.S. dollar.
• Crude Oil Market: Another significant factor was the impending destruction of crude oil demand. This development, coupled with the gloomy macroeconomic outlook, played a substantial role in shaping the forex landscape. As crude oil prices began to fall, the depreciation of currencies in energy-exporting countries gained momentum.
• Canadian Dollar’s Depreciation: The Canadian dollar, in particular, saw a short-term depreciation trend that intensified due to the interplay of these factors.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Weekly Chart

The weekly chart of USD/CAD in October 2023 revealed a pivotal development. The closing line for the week was on the verge of breaking through the suppression of the downward trend line, which had been in place since October of the previous year. Furthermore, the stochastic oscillator was on the cusp of reaffirming the upward trend.

(Weekly chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, we identified a weakening of prices following the recent breach of the weekly downward trend line. The stochastic oscillator displayed a divergent downward trend, indicating that the exchange rate was likely entering an adjustment cycle.

(4-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

USD/CAD 1-Hour Chart Insights

On the 1-hour chart, the 23.6% retracement level at 1.36923 emerged as an extremely critical support price. This level could potentially mark the end of the downward trend. Conversely, falling below this level would signify a breach of the weekly downward trend line, casting doubts on the legitimacy of the recent upward trend.

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

USD/CAD Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1.37375. 

• Bullish above 1.37375, the first target is 1.37846, the second target is 1.38264 
• Bearish below 1.37375, first target 1.36966, second target 1.36495 

Conclusion

In conclusion, October 2023 brought about a series of significant fundamental and technical developments in the USD/CAD forex market. Traders were faced with key decision points, influenced by a variety of factors, from U.S. economic data to crude oil prices.

The forex market remains inherently volatile, emphasizing the importance of informed, strategic, and responsive trading decisions.

At Ultima Markets, we are committed to providing valuable market insights to empower your trading decisions.

While this article offers a comprehensive overview of the USD/CAD situation in October 2023, it’s essential to keep a watchful eye on market developments and continue refining your trading strategies to stay ahead in the competitive world of forex trading.

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Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

Global Mobile Phone Production Decline in 2H23: Insights and Analysis

According to a TrendForce survey, after global smartphone production fell by nearly 20% year-on-year in the first quarter, production continued to decline by approximately 6.6% in the second quarter, to only 270 million units.

A total of 520 million smartphones were produced in the first half of 2023, a 13.3% decline compared to the same period last year. Both individual quarters and the first half of the year in total set a ten-year low. 

Factors Influencing Mobile Phone Production Decline

There are three reasons for the sluggish production performance:

1. China’s lifting of epidemic prevention restrictions has not boosted demand as expected.

2. The demographic dividend effect of the emerging Indian market has not effectively exerted its advantages. 

3. In 2022, brand names were severely hampered by excessive channel inventory. It was originally expected that as the inventory reduced, brand names would have returned to normal production levels. However, affected by the weak economy, people’s consumption willingness is more conservative, resulting in production performance in the first half of the year being less than expected. 

Top Six Global Smartphone Brands Challenges and Channel Inventory

(2Q23 global smartphone production and market share ranking) 

Samsung’s production performance in the second quarter was not as good as the same period last year. The total production in the second quarter was 53.9 million units, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.4%, but it still ranked first in production.  

Apple is facing the transition of new and old models. The second quarter is probably the lowest production performance among the four quarters, with output of 42 million units, a quarter-to-quarter decrease of 21.2%. It is worth noting that Samsung and Apple are quite close in their full-year production forecasts. If the iPhone 15 series performs better than market expectations, it may overtake Samsung to become the number one brand in the global market.

Xiaomi’s output in the second quarter was approximately 35 million units, a quarterly increase of 32.1%, driven by the gradual decline in channel inventory and the launch of new models.  

A special change in the ranking is that Transsion overtook Vivo and entered fifth place in the world for the first time. Its production volume increased by more than 70% quarter-on-quarter to 25.1 million units.  

Outlook for the Global Smartphone Market

The overall economy has not fully recovered in the second half of the year, and demand in consumer markets such as China, Europe and the United States has not yet recovered significantly. Even if the economic indicators of the Indian market improve, it is still difficult to reverse the decline in global smartphone production.  

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive GBP/NZD Analysis for October 4, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of GBP/NZD for 4th October 2023. 

Key Insight: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Economic Outlook

• RBNZ Decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has opted to maintain the interest rate at 5.50%.
• Consistency: Notably, this marks the third consecutive time that the central bank has refrained from adjusting interest rates.
• GDP Growth: Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the June quarter, the overall growth outlook remains subdued.
• Global Economic Risks: The RBNZ Committee has expressed concerns about downside risks to the global economic growth outlook in the medium term.
• Short-Term Currency Trends: In the short term, the New Zealand dollar may face a depreciation trend.

Technical Analysis: A Closer Look on GBP/NZD Trading Charts

GBP/NZD Daily Chart Insights

Reversal Structure: The daily chart illustrates a clear reversal structure, with the 240-day moving average acting as a significant resistance point.

( Daily chart of GBP/NZD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The stochastic oscillator technical indicator has also left the oversold area after being oversold for nearly 9 trading days. The market may continue to rebound and rise today. 

GBP/NZD 4-Hour Chart Observations

• Motive Wave: A five-wave upward structure has emerged since the end of September, signaling a potential motive wave.
• Moving Average Test: The market has surged rapidly and is nearing the 65-period moving average, a level to monitor for potential breakout.

(4-hour chart of GBP/NZD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of GBP/NZD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Central Price: According to Ultima Markets MT4 pivot indicator, the central price for the day stands at 2.04099.

• Bullish Outlook: A price movement above 2.04099 could trigger an upward momentum, targeting 2.05336 as the first level of resistance and 2.06164 as the second.
• Bearish Outlook: A dip below 2.04099 may indicate a bearish trend, with the first support level at 2.03301 and the second at 2.02075.

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Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

US Manufacturing PMI Shows Improvement, but Stagnant Inflation Remains a Concern

The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 49 in September from 47.6 last month, well above market expectations of 47.8, reflecting the slowest contraction in the U.S. manufacturing industry in ten months.

Even as the economic slowdown improved, data still showed U.S. factory activity contracting on a month-on-month basis for nearly a year in a row, underscoring the impact of rising borrowing costs from the Federal Reserve on the industry.

Trends in New Orders and Production

Although new orders fell for the 13th consecutive month, the pace of decline slowed significantly as the changing supply chain environment pushed customers to take on more engineering (process).

Production rebounded from August’s stagnation and set the largest increase since July 2022. 

(ISM Manufacturing PMI, Institute for Supply Management) 

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.8 in September 2023, surpassing the preliminary estimate of 48.9 and exceeding August’s final reading of 47.9.

The latest figure pointed to a fifth consecutive month of contraction in the sector’s health, albeit only fractional. Output increased at a marginal pace that was nonetheless the fastest since May.

In contrast, job creation remained moderate, and new orders continued to decline for the fifth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of high interest rates and inflation on consumer demand.

Inflation and Business Confidence

On the price front, both input costs and output charges accelerated, though inflation rates remained historically low, well below the levels seen over the past three years.

Moreover, business confidence reached its highest level since April 2022, driven by optimism about an impending improvement in demand conditions.  

Stagnant Inflation (Stagflation)

(US Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global) 

Based on the surveys, although survey data have improved overall, manufacturing reports show that production continues to slow down, and prices are accelerating again. The phenomenon presented is “stagnant inflation (Stagflation)“.

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Comprehensive Brent Oil Analysis for October 3, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the Brent Oil (UKOUSD) for 3rd October 2023. 

Key Takeaways

Key Point: The lifting of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, coupled with robust PMI data, has driven the U.S. dollar index to 107, a level not seen since November last year. This surge in the dollar’s strength has led to a sharp decline in non-U.S. currencies and a corresponding dip in crude oil prices, reaching three-week lows.

• Increased OPEC Production: Notably, OPEC’s oil production increased by 120,000 barrels per day in September compared to August, reaching 27.73 million barrels per day for the second consecutive month.
• Bearish Sentiment Emerges: Concerns over increased supply and the impact of high interest rates on demand have prompted bearish sentiment in the crude oil market.

Brent Oil Technical Analysis

Brent Oil Daily Chart Analysis

( Daily chart of BRENT OIL, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Key Point: The daily chart reveals a rapid decline in crude oil prices, signaling a strong bearish trend.

Stochastic Oscillator Signals

Key Point: Stochastic oscillator technical indicators suggest a divergence from market prices, indicating a high probability of short-term bearishness.

Brent Oil 1 Hour Chart Analysis

(1hour chart of BRENT OIL, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Key Point: Recent significant volatility is observed on the 1-hour chart, with the ATR combination indicator signaling an effective breakthrough. Traders should exercise caution and monitor entry opportunities.

Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of BRENT OIL, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Key Point: According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets’ MT4 platform, the central price of the day stands at 92.210. Technical outlook:

• Bullish Scenario: Above 92.210, with targets set at 92.951 and 95.175.
• Bearish Scenario: Below 92.210, with targets at 90.003 and 89.210.

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Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

The Rise of NVIDIA: A Dominant Force in IC Design

In the fast-paced world of integrated circuit (IC) design, the tides are constantly shifting, and the recent performance of the industry’s top players has been nothing short of remarkable.

According to TrendForce reports, fueled by an AI-driven inventory stocking frenzy across the supply chain, 2Q23 revenue for the top 10 global IC design powerhouses soared to US $38.1 billion, marking a 12.5% quarterly increase.

In this rising tide, NVIDIA seized the crown, officially dethroning Qualcomm as the world’s premier IC design house, while the remainder of the leaderboard remained stable.  

(2Q23 World’s top 10 IC design houses, TrendForce) 

NVIDIA: The New Kingpin

NVIDIA benefited from global CSPs (cloud service providers), internet company and enterprise generative AI, large-scale language model import application demands, and its data center revenue increased by as much as 105% quarterly.

In addition, revenue from gaming and professional visualization businesses also continued to grow, driven by new products.

Overall, revenue in the second quarter reached US$11.33 billion, a quarterly increase of 68.3%.   

Qualcomm’s Challenges

Qualcomm’s Q2 took a hit as the Android smartphone sector grappled with dwindling demand and Apple’s modem pre-purchases resulted in a subdued seasonal rhythm.

Consequently, their revenue slid by 9.7%, rounding off at about US$7.17 billion. 

Broadcom’s Mixed Bag

Broadcom benefited from the sales of high-end switches and routers catalyzed by generative AI, its NetCom business increased by about 9% quarterly.

However, offset by the decline in server storage, broadband, and wireless business, the second quarter revenue was roughly the same as the previous quarter at about $6.9 billion.  

AMD’s Steady Stance

AMD’s overall second-quarter revenue was roughly the same as the previous quarter at about US$5.36 billion, due to the decline in gaming GPU sales and embedded business in the second quarter.  

The Outlook for IC Design Houses

Although the inventory levels of semi-companies have improved significantly compared with those in 1H23, the outlook for the second half of the year tends to be conservative because of the weak market demand.

It is worth noting that the wave of generative AI and large-scale language model deployment has emerged among Internet companies and private enterprises.

It is expected that AI will be more helpful to related supply chain operations in the second half of the year, and the average sales unit price of such products will be higher than that of consumer products.

As a result, the world’s top ten IC design revenue will continue to have double-digit quarterly growth in the third quarter, and the output value is expected to reach a new high. 

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Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.