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公告

地缘局势骤然升级:中东风险推升油价;黄金大放异彩

2 3 月 2026

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2026年3月2日

新交易月以一场前所未有的地缘政治“地震”拉开序幕。上周的谨慎乐观情绪在周末被彻底打破——美以联合军事行动击毙伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊。

随着伊朗已对中东多地展开报复性导弹打击,区域空域陆续关闭,市场迅速进入极端“风险厌恶”模式。投资者正将真实战争情景全面计入油价,而资金则加速流向终极避险资产——黄金。

美以伊冲突升级:风险溢价全面爆发

能源市场本周一迎来最坏情景。当前市场叙事已不再是“对抗威胁”,而是区域全面冲突正式展开。

美以对德黑兰实施“斩首式”打击后,伊朗迅速展开报复,导弹袭击以色列及多个邻近阿拉伯国家。这直接威胁整个中东能源基础设施以及关键的霍尔木兹海峡航运通道。

市场影响

“战争溢价”强势回归。上周末选择获利了结的交易员如今被迫紧急回补空头头寸,并加码多头仓位以对冲潜在供应冲击风险。WTI与布伦特原油在周一开盘出现大幅跳空高开。

WTI与布伦特展望:技术面强势突破

这一基本面冲击彻底推翻了上周潜在的反转结构,多头重新掌控局势,上行动能显著增强。

WTI与布伦特在周一开盘均跳空上涨近9%,随后出现典型的“跳空后技术性回踩”。

USOUSD,日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

USOUSD,日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

WTI在65.00美元支撑位附近强势反弹,跳空高开后迅速突破67.00阻力。

在最高触及73美元后出现技术性回落,短期或进入整理阶段。然而,在当前基本面背景下,油价短期仍将维持高位。WTI(USOUSD)当前支撑位位于70美元附近,关键底部仍在67美元。

UKOUSD,日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

UKOUSD,日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

布伦特原油走势与WTI同步爆发,突破72.00关键枢轴位,空头几乎毫无准备。

当前上方阻力位在82美元附近,短期支撑在75美元,主要底部仍维持在72美元。

原油展望

本轮跳空上涨与回踩属于典型的“消息驱动行情”。尽管短期或出现技术性整理,但后续走势仍将高度依赖地缘政治头条。

除非中东局势出现突然缓和(例如特朗普释放谈判信号),否则油价短期大概率维持高位,关键支撑位附近的反弹仍值得关注。

黄金:终极避险资产

若说油价上涨源于供应中断担忧,黄金则完全由地缘恐慌推动。作为高度不稳定宏观环境中的核心避险资产,黄金表现尤为强劲。

  • 黄金正受益于罕见的“双重驱动”。一方面,中东战争升级带来强烈“风险厌恶”买盘;另一方面,上周五PPI数据意外走高引发的美国通胀担忧持续支撑金价。
  • 投资者抛售风险资产(如股票),将资金转向实物黄金。即便美元因避险情绪短暂走强,黄金也已明显脱离与美元的传统负相关关系,完全由恐慌情绪主导。
XAUUSD,H4图 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAUUSD,H4图 | Ultima Markets MT5

黄金强势突破,上周稳守5,100美元支撑后跳空上行。随着主要阻力被突破,5,250–5,300区间现转为关键支撑。

若该区域守稳,下一目标或指向5,440–5,500流动性区间。当前市场对任何日内回调均表现出强烈买盘。

今日关注重点

1. 战争相关消息(全天)

  • 波动警示: 技术水平在重大突发新闻面前极为脆弱。任何关于进一步军事行动、基础设施打击或美军部署的消息,都可能引发油价、黄金与美股的剧烈日内波动。交易需极度谨慎。

2. 美国ISM制造业PMI(美东时间10:00)

  • 经济现实检验: 尽管被战争消息掩盖,但这是3月首个重要美国经济数据。若数据疲弱,将强化“滞胀”叙事,进一步推升黄金走势;不过油市交易员仍将高度聚焦中东局势发展。

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