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小麦期货多空纷呈,来年得步步为营

12 月底小麦期货价格徘徊在每蒲式耳 6.30 美元附近,预计今年将以较前年约15% 跌幅作收。 来自俄罗斯和南美等主要生产国的供给平抚了乌俄战争造成的供应链中断风险。 美国农业部最新预测显示,俄罗斯2023/2024年度小麦产量可达到9,000万吨,接近上一季创纪录的9,200万吨。 这会使俄罗斯的小麦出口剩余额推到历史最高水平5,000万吨,是迄今为止世界上最大量。 南美洲的丰收进一步添增全球库存,导致9月小麦期货跌幅创三年低点。 然而,俄罗斯军事攻击对乌克兰基础设施造成的破坏,加上今年稍早黑海谷物协议的终止,遏制了乌克兰的出口,减缓价格下跌压力。 

展望未来,2024年的前景充满十足不确定性。 如果乌克兰冲突加剧,导致主要生产国小麦生产或出口中断,尽管库存充足,价格仍可能飙升。 此外,关键种植区的干旱或洪水等极端气候亦影响作物产量。 另外,停火谈判和扩大出口可能使乌克兰恢复正常收成和运输。 乌克兰出口恢复,加上理想的天气和俄罗斯产量再创新高,都可能引发小麦期货承压。 很大程度上取决于 2024 年初的地缘政治和作物发展。 一样无法忽视的是全球小麦需求强度,消费成长的任何放缓都可能加剧库存过剩。 小麦进口区域欧洲或亚洲的经济衰退也许抑制粮食需求,使小麦期货下跌。 

(小麦期货5年线图) 

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