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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website本周,随着投资者等待美国生产者价格指数(PPI)与消费者价格指数(CPI)的公布,全球股市在谨慎乐观的氛围中交投。这两项关键数据将在下周美联储政策会议前奠定基调。
美国三大股指接近历史新高,欧洲与亚洲主要股指也同步上涨,反映市场对货币宽松即将到来的信心。
市场已完全计入9月16–17日FOMC会议降息25个基点的可能性,若经济数据进一步恶化,则仍有小概率出现50个基点的降息。目前预期显示,美联储2025年可能会有三次降息。
近期多位美联储官员在讲话中强化了鸽派立场。理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)重申支持9月降息,并表示宽松可能会在未来三到六个月延续。
与此同时,美国法院裁定,美联储理事丽莎·库克(Lisa Cook)在总统川普试图将其免职的诉讼继续进行期间可继续履职。库克被广泛视为鸽派,这意味着她将参与下周的FOMC投票,从而进一步强化政策转向的可能性。
由于9月降息几乎已被市场完全消化,投资者的焦点已转向宽松节奏。即将公布的PPI(周二)与CPI(周三)将成为美联储会议前的最后通胀考验。
市场普遍预测通胀温和回落,这将支持年内更深度宽松周期的预期。但若数据意外上行,则可能迫使市场转向更缓慢、更谨慎的路径。
市场最新反应
美元指数(USDX),4小时图 | 来源:Ultima Market MT5
美元昨日早盘一度走低,但随后反弹,维持在近期震荡区间上方。尽管美元企稳回升,整体走势仍显示潜在的下行倾向,交易员正等待明确的触发因素。
即将公布的PPI与CPI数据或将成为关键催化剂。若通胀数据偏软,美元可能加速走弱;若通胀意外坚挺,则美元在短期内或将延续韧性。
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