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美元因强劲非农就业数据上涨 

美元因强劲非农就业数据上涨 

上周五，失业率上升反映了家庭就业数据的疲软。用来衡量失业率的小型且波动较大的家庭调查显示，就业人数减少了35.5万人。相比之下，11月非农就业人数增加了22.7万人，高于10月经上调后增加的3.6万人（原先报告为1.2万人）。因此，美元指数上涨0.23%，收于105.97。 

（美元指数日线图，来源：Trading View） 

（美元指数日线图，来源：Trading View） 

过去四份报告中，月均就业增长逐渐降至15万以下，这一水平被许多经济学家认为不足以跟上不断增长的人口需求。 

（美国非农就业数据，来源：LSEG） 

（美国非农就业数据，来源：LSEG） 

非农就业数据发布后，美国利率期货显示美联储在本月晚些时候的政策会议上降息25个基点的概率已升至85%，高于报告发布前的约70%，据LSEG计算。与此同时，暂停降息的可能性从30%降至15%。 

预计美联储将继续降息25个基点，以将货币政策从紧缩转向中性。然而，预计美联储将暗示放缓降息步伐，1月FOMC会议暂停进一步决策的可能性显得更加明确。 

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考，旨在帮助读者了解市场形势，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的绝对准确性，并可能随时更改，恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损（包括但不限于利润损失）不承担责任。 

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