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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website周四,美国通胀数据与欧洲央行(ECB)的最新决议向全球市场释放出复杂信号,投资者正在重新调整对主要央行政策路径的预期。
8月美国消费者价格指数(CPI)显示通胀小幅回升,但整体仍符合市场预期:
尽管通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标,但整体数据大体符合预期,使投资者依然对今年稍晚的降息前景充满信心。一些分析师甚至指出,美联储或许会接受通胀稳定在接近3%的水平,作为后疫情时代的“新常态”。
与此同时,美国劳动力市场近期走弱,包括非农就业数据不及预期,也进一步强化了市场对美联储将在9月政策会议开启宽松周期的押注。
美元在数据公布后表现不一,因市场早已部分消化结果;美股则延续涨势,反映出市场对货币宽松前景的乐观情绪。
大西洋彼岸,欧洲央行如预期般维持利率不变。央行指出欧元区经济展现出一定韧性,同时通胀预测显示逐步回到目标水平:
欧洲央行强调将采取“逐次会议”、“依赖数据”的方式,不会承诺预设的降息路径。市场将此解读为谨慎立场,从而下调了对激进宽松的预期。交易员目前认为,欧洲央行在当前周期中多次降息的可能性下降,2025年是否会再次行动仍存在高度不确定性。
这两大信号凸显政策前景的分化:美联储似乎已接近开启宽松,而欧洲央行则不愿在当前暂停之外做出更多承诺。这种政策差异预计将在未来数月继续主导欧元、美元及债市的走势。
技术面分析
EURUSD,4小时图 | 来源:Ultima Market MT5
近期,欧元兑美元整体保持区间震荡。从周四事件后的价格走势来看,政策分化可能继续为欧元提供支撑。
但从技术面角度看,该货币对正面临1.1740–1.1800的关键阻力区。若突破该区间,或将打开进一步上行空间;若未能突破,则可能继续维持盘整格局。
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