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周四数据显示,继8月份未经修正的0.1%增幅之后,美国上月零售销售增长0.4%,并超过了经济学家预期的0.3%增幅。美元受此影响而走强,上涨0.23%,收盘于103.766并创下11周以来的新高。

(美元指数每日价格图表,来源:Trading View)
此外,美国劳工部的一份独立报告显示,上周初请失业金人数减少了19,000人,调整季节因素后为241,000人。然而,飓风和波音公司为期一个月的罢工使得对劳动力市场的清晰评估变得更加复杂。
与此同时,根据LSEG的估计,美国利率期货显示美联储有92%的可能性会降息25个基点,8%的概率会按兵不动,保持联邦基金利率在4.75%-5%的目标区间。包括杰罗姆·鲍威尔在内的美联储官员,已经反对进一步降息50个基点的可能性。在9月份,美联储出人意料地进行了较大幅度的降息,令部分市场参与者感到意外。
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