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根据路透社调查的大多数分析师的预期,俄罗斯央行可能在周一将关键利率上调100个基点至20%,与俄罗斯称之为“特别军事行动”开始时的水平相同。

(俄罗斯央行利率决定,来源:Investing.com)
央行官员表示,预算草案中的某些部分出乎意料。同时,俄罗斯家庭对未来一年通胀的预期在10月上升至13.4%,而9月为12.5%。这些预期被央行视为与实际通胀同样重要的衡量标准,自4月以来一直稳步上升,仅在9月略有下降,目前已达到年初以来的最高水平。
预计今年年底通胀率将达到7.7%的央行,还面临着来自有影响力的商界人士的压力,他们认为高利率对经济有害。然而,分析师表示,这种压力不会动摇监管机构的决心。“目前,央行的任务依然非常坚定,尤其是在国家领导层经历了比2014年和2020年更大的冲击后,再次认识到其确保稳定的能力,”文艺复兴资本的奥列格·库兹明表示。
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