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澳洲央行按兵不动，通胀忧虑令基调更趋谨慎

澳洲央行按兵不动，通胀忧虑令基调更趋谨慎

澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）在周二举行的最新会议上决定维持政策利率不变，符合市场普遍预期。然而，随附的声明语气更加谨慎，反映出央行对持续通胀压力的担忧加剧。

  • 现金利率（Cash Rate）：RBA董事会决定将官方现金利率维持在3.60%，与市场预期一致。
  • 一致预期：该决定获得一致通过，符合经济学家和市场普遍预测，尤其是在近期通胀数据高于预期之后。

RBA声明要点

官方声明强调了通胀再度上升的风险，同时维持“数据导向”的政策立场：

  • RBA确认“通胀近期出现回升”。声明指出，9月份季度数据显示，修正均值通胀（核心通胀首选指标）同比上升至3.0%，明显高于预期，并触及央行2–3%的目标区间上限。
  • 董事会表示，“国内经济活动正在复苏”，住房市场“持续走强”，表明此前连续三次降息已开始刺激私人需求。
  • 劳动力市场仍“略显紧张”，尽管9月失业率小幅上升至4.5%。
  • 行长米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）在会后新闻发布会上重申，未来政策决定将取决于经济数据，并强调央行对“前景双向不确定性”保持高度警惕。

澳元市场影响

公告公布后，澳元（AUD）反应平淡至略显防御，因利率“按兵不动”的决定早已被市场充分消化。然而，RBA承认国内需求强劲、通胀顽固，这表明短期内进一步降息的可能性较低。

Ultima Markets分析师Shawn Lee指出，此次决定属于“鹰派按兵不动”（Hawkish Hold），市场对2025年晚些时候再次降息的预期已基本消退。虽然这一立场可能为澳元提供中期支撑，但短期表现仍受美元强势与全球风险情绪谨慎的压制。

截至发稿时，AUD/USD交易于0.6520附近，接近关键心理关口0.6500。

接下来关注什么？

由于RBA完全依赖数据驱动，市场焦点迅速转向两项关键经济数据，这将决定未来的通胀与就业走势：

  • 10月CPI（预计于11月中公布）：该报告将成为判断通胀压力是否持续上升或趋于稳定的关键指标。若修正均值CPI进一步上升，将强化央行延后降息的理由。
  • 11月劳动力市场报告：就业状况仍是RBA通胀展望的核心支撑。若失业率持续上升，将缓解工资带来的通胀风险；相反，若就业保持强劲，可能促使央行更长时间维持当前政策立场。

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