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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website本周,美联储将面临更高关注度,杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会成为市场焦点,投资者正翘首以待美联储未来货币政策走向及利率前景的信号。时机尤为关键,因为上周刚公布的通胀数据表现分化。
这场年度央行行长、经济学家与政策制定者的聚会,为美联储主席鲍威尔提供了一个罕见且极具影响力的平台,去回应关键的政策挑战。他的讲话将被市场逐字解读,寻找美联储如何应对矛盾数据、持续的通胀担忧,以及不断加大的政治压力。
近期经济数据凸显了不确定性:虽然整体CPI显示出一定降温迹象,但核心CPI依旧顽固,而生产者物价指数(PPI)意外上行——这加剧了市场担忧,即关税带来的成本压力可能逐渐传导至消费者端。
外汇市场保持谨慎,美元在鲍威尔讲话前保持震荡。任何语调上的变化,都可能引发汇市和股市的波动。
若鲍威尔释放鸽派信号,将强化近期降息预期,可能令美元走弱,同时提振股市和风险资产。相反,如果讲话偏谨慎甚至鹰派,可能推迟降息预期,从而支撑美元,并加剧债市与股市的波动。
美元指数(USDX)日线图分析 | 来源:Ultima Market MT5
美元指数近期维持窄幅整理,区间在98.50至97.50之间震荡。
若突破该区间,将可能为下一轮方向性行情奠定基础。在市场观望情绪主导下,本周的杰克逊霍尔会议或成为打破美元震荡格局的催化剂。
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