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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website周二,黄金下跌0.25%,收于每盎司2646美元。这主要是因为美元走强和国债收益率攀升给黄金带来了压力,投资者将目光聚焦于美联储今年最后一次政策会议,并对2025年逐步降息的预期日益增强。
(XAUUSD日线价格图表,来源:Trading View)
市场还在密切关注美联储的最新经济预测和点阵图,这可能会重新塑造市场对2025年至2026年利率走向的预期。市场目前关注的是美联储是否会比预期更鹰派或更鸽派。由于特朗普的政策议程,许多人预计美联储在当前阶段将更加谨慎,为未来的进一步降息预留空间。
与此同时,美国11月零售销售数据好于预期,加上最近几个月通胀数据较高,这表明美联储可能会在1月份暂停进一步降息。根据CME的FedWatch工具,本周降息25个基点的概率为95%,但1月份再次降息的可能性仅约为16%。
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