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美联储“鹰派”降息提振美元至两年高位 

美联储如预期维持利率在4.25%不变 

周三,美联储将基准政策利率下调25个基点,达到4.25%-4.50%的区间。官员们暗示,由于劳动力市场条件保持稳定且通胀趋势表现平稳,未来可能暂停进一步降息。这一鹰派基调推动美元上涨超过1%,创下两年来新高。 

(美元指数图表,来源:Trading View) 

(美元指数图表,来源:Trading View) 

美联储决策者上调了长期中性利率预期,大幅提高了2025年的通胀预测,并制定了明年进一步降息的计划。然而,将较高的通胀预期与进一步的货币宽松相结合,在新闻发布会上对美联储主席鲍威尔来说是一项艰巨的挑战。 

“在评估进一步调整目标区间的范围和时机时,委员会将密切关注最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及相关风险,” 鲍威尔表示,并补充了新的表述,表明可能从1月28-29日的会议开始暂停降息。 

此外,由于当选总统特朗普要到1月20日才上任,美联储官员也强调,货币政策不能基于仍存在不确定性的竞选承诺。因此,美联储工作人员可能已经模拟了不同的情境。他们的预测显示,明年经济增长将高于潜力水平,达到2.1%,通胀将在未来两年内超过目标水平,而失业率将保持在4.3%以下。 

免责声明 

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。 

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