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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website周三,美联储将基准政策利率下调25个基点,达到4.25%-4.50%的区间。官员们暗示,由于劳动力市场条件保持稳定且通胀趋势表现平稳,未来可能暂停进一步降息。这一鹰派基调推动美元上涨超过1%,创下两年来新高。
(美元指数图表,来源:Trading View)
美联储决策者上调了长期中性利率预期,大幅提高了2025年的通胀预测,并制定了明年进一步降息的计划。然而,将较高的通胀预期与进一步的货币宽松相结合,在新闻发布会上对美联储主席鲍威尔来说是一项艰巨的挑战。
“在评估进一步调整目标区间的范围和时机时,委员会将密切关注最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及相关风险,” 鲍威尔表示,并补充了新的表述,表明可能从1月28-29日的会议开始暂停降息。
此外,由于当选总统特朗普要到1月20日才上任,美联储官员也强调,货币政策不能基于仍存在不确定性的竞选承诺。因此,美联储工作人员可能已经模拟了不同的情境。他们的预测显示,明年经济增长将高于潜力水平,达到2.1%,通胀将在未来两年内超过目标水平,而失业率将保持在4.3%以下。
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