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欧洲央行面临通胀上升与政策路径的不确定性 

欧元区通胀因能源和服务成本上涨至2.4% 

欧元区的通胀率在12月加速上升，从11月的2.2%攀升至2.4%，并符合预期。这主要是由于能源价格上涨以及服务行业成本增加。欧元兑美元下跌0.48%，收盘于1.034美元。 

（欧元区通胀图表，来源：Eurostat） 

（欧元区通胀图表，来源：Eurostat） 

（欧元兑美元日价格图表，来源：Trading View） 

 
（欧元兑美元日价格图表，来源：Trading View） 

核心通胀率是衡量价格增长持续性的重要指标，仍然居高不下。这可能会加强对欧洲央行在未来几个月采取谨慎政策放松的呼吁。支持这一谨慎立场的还有欧洲央行的一项消费者调查，该调查显示短期和中期通胀预期均有所上升。对未来三年通胀的预测从上次调查的2.1%升至2.4%，明显高于欧洲央行的目标。 

虽然通胀率最近飙升并接近欧洲央行的2%目标，但未来的数据可能仍然不稳定。然而，从中长期来看，整体趋势预计将下降，尤其是在下半年更有可能接近欧洲央行设定的目标。 

去年，欧洲央行多次降息，表明通胀目标几乎触手可及。更多的宽松政策即将出台，但其速度和时间仍未确定。目前，投资者对每次会议（直至6月）的降息预期持怀疑态度，预计欧洲央行在上半年某次会议中跳过降息的概率为50%。 

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考，旨在帮助读者了解市场形势，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的绝对准确性，并可能随时更改，恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损（包括但不限于利润损失）不承担责任。 

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