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欧央行再度降息,美联储待未来数据

4月17日,欧洲央行(ECB)如市场普遍预期宣布将关键利率下调25个基点,为自2024年6月以来的第七次降息。此次决议将存款机制利率降至2.25%,主要再融资利率降至2.40%,边际借贷利率降至2.65%。

本轮进一步降息旨在应对全球贸易紧张局势升级,特别是美国近期加征关税对欧元区经济构成的下行风险。

欧洲央行维持数据依赖立场

欧洲央行行长拉加德强调,此次降息为一致通过的决定,反映出市场对美国关税引发的需求冲击的担忧。她指出,贸易紧张局势可能会抑制欧元区的出口、投资和消费。

拉加德同时指出,虽然通胀已回落至接近欧洲央行2%的目标,但由于全球贸易政策带来的不确定性增加,经济增长前景已明显恶化。

在本次4月会议上,欧洲央行并未明确未来政策路径,仍维持数据依赖的政策立场,未来利率决策将根据每次会议的经济与金融数据变化而定。

美联储鲍威尔:关税影响超预期

美联储主席鲍威尔于周四在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话,回应了市场对美国产业前景的担忧,背景是贸易紧张局势持续升级。

鲍威尔指出,川普政府近期加征的关税“远超预期”,令人担忧这可能推高通胀并拖累经济增长。他强调,美联储仍将致力于实现其“双重使命”,必要时将调整货币政策。

“我们将保持谨慎,”鲍威尔表示,美联储将等待更多数据以了解关税的全面经济影响后,再作出利率决定。

这一审慎立场也为未来数月降息打开了可能性之门,尤其是在通胀维持稳定且经济数据趋弱的情形下。考虑到在5月或6月议息会议前还有两至三份通胀报告,市场愈发预期若经济数据允许,美联储或将于6月启动宽松政策。

(CME Fedwatch 工具 – 会议概率;来源:CME Group)

欧元兑美元测试多年高点

(欧元/美元 日线图;来源:Ultima Market MT5)

欧元/美元目前交投于1.1400附近的三年高位,正测试2022年2月高点一线的阻力区。

从技术角度来看,该区域可能形成短期阻力。然而,若欧元/美元突破1.1400并在未来几个交易日稳居于1.2100之上,将进一步确认欧元的强劲看涨趋势。

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