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通胀数据走软，加元跌至十周低点 

周二，加拿大9月份的年通胀率降至1.6%，低于预期的1.8%，并从8月份的2.0%进一步下跌。根据加拿大统计局的数据，通胀的缓解主要是由于汽油价格的大幅下跌，且这是自2021年2月以来消费者价格的最小年增幅。美元兑加元的汇率接近十周低点，下跌0.15%，收盘于1.3775。 

（美元兑加元日线价格图，来源：Trading View） 

自年初以来，加拿大的消费者价格稳步下降，并在上个月达到加拿大央行1%-3%目标区间的中点，因为高利率抑制了消费者需求和商业投资。因此，最新的通胀数据促使市场增加对下周降息50个基点的期望。 

事实上，加拿大央行已经在过去三次政策会议上都把基准利率下调25个基点。上个月，加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆警告称，通胀可能会跌破目标区间，经济增长也可能会减弱，这加剧了市场对更大幅度50个基点降息的预期。因此，加拿大央行需要采取行动，提振经济并防止通胀过度下降，50个基点的降息或许是合适的解决方案。 

（加拿大通胀与利率，来源：加拿大统计局） 

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