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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website全球金融市场即将迎来一场密集的利率决策风暴,包括美联储、英国央行、日本央行在内的多家主要央行将在约36小时内相继公布利率决议。这些决策将为全球经济的最后一个季度定下基调,并对全球主要货币的走势产生直接影响。
本周最核心的事件无疑是美联储的利率决议,市场普遍预测其将宣布降息25个基点。这一预期是在复杂的背景下形成的:
一方面,白宫持续施压要求降低借贷成本;另一方面,美联储主席鲍威尔对关税可能引发的通胀保持警惕。
然而,近期就业市场显现的疲软迹象,最终为政策转向宽松提供了关键理由,使得降息成为大概率事件。
尽管美联储可能转向宽松,但全球其他主要央行的步调并不完全一致,呈现出明显的分化态势。
加拿大央行受国内经济数据走弱影响,预计将与美联储同步降息。
相比之下,英国央行和日本央行大概率将维持当前利率不变,但市场将密切关注英国央行关于量化紧缩(QT)计划的调整以及日本央行行长对未来加息路径的任何暗示。
这种政策上的分歧将是本周市场交易的重要主题。
美元指数,日线图 | 来源:Ultima Market MT5
目前日线图美元指数在震荡一个月后,突破震荡区间下沿,下方即将遇阻关键支撑96.23附近。但是注意的是前期市场始终在计价美联储降息预期,警惕届时买预期卖事实的行情出现。
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