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美联储在放缓降息中面临平衡难题 

平衡通胀与就业 

上周日，美联储理事阿德里亚娜·库格勒和旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利强调了美国央行今年在放缓降息步伐时面临的复杂平衡难题。去年，美联储将短期利率下调了整整一个百分点，降至当前的4.25%-4.50%区间。 

（市场预期的美国联邦基金利率图表，来源：统计局） 

（市场预期的美国联邦基金利率图表，来源：统计局） 

“我们完全清楚，目前还没有达到目标，所以现在还没庆祝什么任何东西” 库格勒在旧金山举行的美国经济学会年会上表示。去年11月，失业率为4.2%，库格勒和戴利都认为这一水平符合美联储的双重目标：最大就业和价格稳定。戴利补充道： “在当前阶段，我不希望劳动力市场出现进一步疲软，也许某些月份会有自然的波动，但肯定不能出现额外的放缓。” 她在同一场小组讨论中发表了这些言论。 

根据美联储首选的通胀指标，通胀已从2022年年中约7%的峰值大幅下降至去年11月的2.4%。尽管如此，这一水平仍高于美联储2%的目标。去年12月，决策者调整了他们的预测，预计实现这一目标的进展将比此前预期更为缓慢。 

此外，美国上周新增失业救济申请人数降至八个月来的最低水平，表明2024年底裁员情况较少，劳动力市场依然强劲。加州和德州的未调整申请人数大幅下降，而密歇根州、新泽西州、宾夕法尼亚州、俄亥俄州、马萨诸塞州和康涅狄格州的申请人数则出现显著增加。 

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