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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website欧元区的通胀率在12月加速上升,从11月的2.2%攀升至2.4%,并符合预期。这主要是由于能源价格上涨以及服务行业成本增加。欧元兑美元下跌0.48%,收盘于1.034美元。
(欧元区通胀图表,来源:Eurostat)
(欧元兑美元日价格图表,来源:Trading View)
核心通胀率是衡量价格增长持续性的重要指标,仍然居高不下。这可能会加强对欧洲央行在未来几个月采取谨慎政策放松的呼吁。支持这一谨慎立场的还有欧洲央行的一项消费者调查,该调查显示短期和中期通胀预期均有所上升。对未来三年通胀的预测从上次调查的2.1%升至2.4%,明显高于欧洲央行的目标。
虽然通胀率最近飙升并接近欧洲央行的2%目标,但未来的数据可能仍然不稳定。然而,从中长期来看,整体趋势预计将下降,尤其是在下半年更有可能接近欧洲央行设定的目标。
去年,欧洲央行多次降息,表明通胀目标几乎触手可及。更多的宽松政策即将出台,但其速度和时间仍未确定。目前,投资者对每次会议(直至6月)的降息预期持怀疑态度,预计欧洲央行在上半年某次会议中跳过降息的概率为50%。
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