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中国贸易在全球挑战中激增

出口推动复苏，贸易风险依然存在 

尽管中国的进口部门也出现反弹，但12月的出口贸易表现强劲，这可能是由于工厂预期特朗普政府下贸易紧张局势加剧而加快出货所致。 

根据周一发布的海关数据显示，12月出口同比增长10.7%，超出预期的7.3%，并高于11月的6.7%。同时，进口增长1.0%，为2024年7月以来的最佳表现，扭转了此前预测的1.5%下降。 

（中国进出口图表，来源：CGAC）

（中国进出口图表，来源：CGAC） 

长期以来，出口一直是中国18万亿美元经济体的支柱之一，但其仍在艰难应对长期的房地产市场低迷和消费者信心不足。最近的政策干预帮助稳定了增长，使经济回到完成2025年“约5%”增长目标的轨道。然而，美国关税上调等挑战使前景不确定。 

即将于下周重新执掌美国总统职位的唐纳德·特朗普呼吁对中国进口商品征收高额关税，引发了人们对中美两大经济体之间贸易冲突再次升级的担忧。此外，与欧盟的争端进一步加剧忧虑，后者对中国电动汽车征收高达45.3%的关税。这些措施可能会阻碍中国扩大汽车出口的努力，并削弱通过解决产能过剩问题缓解通缩压力的尝试。 

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考，旨在帮助读者了解市场形势，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的绝对准确性，并可能随时更改，恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损（包括但不限于利润损失）不承担责任。 

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