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澳大利亚通胀趋势提升澳储行降息预期 

核心通胀下降加强了澳储行采取行动的理由 

11月,澳大利亚消费者价格因电价上涨而有所上升。这使通胀从三年来的低点略微上升,同时由于核心通胀的下降,进一步支持了最早在下月降息的理由。根据澳大利亚统计局发布的数据,月度消费者价格指数(CPI)按年增长,11月为2.3%,高于10月的2.1%,也略高于市场预期的2.2%。 

(澳大利亚CPI年同比图表,来源:澳大利亚统计局)

(澳大利亚CPI年同比图表,来源:澳大利亚统计局) 

值得注意的是,修正均值作为核心通胀的重要指标也逐步降至年率3.2%,低于此前的3.5%,这是一个乐观的信号,符合澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)2%-3%的目标区间。如果澳储行发布季度报告,这一趋势预计将增强其对实现通胀目标的信心。 

自2022年9月以来,澳储行将官方目标现金利率维持在4.35%,认为这一水平足以将通胀控制在目标范围内,同时保持就业增长。目前的现金利率相比疫情期间创下的0.1%历史低点,有了显著提高,反映出央行更为保守的政策立场。然而,由于经济活动放缓,澳储行上月末对其货币政策表现出了温和的态度。 

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。 

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