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11月,澳大利亚消费者价格因电价上涨而有所上升。这使通胀从三年来的低点略微上升,同时由于核心通胀的下降,进一步支持了最早在下月降息的理由。根据澳大利亚统计局发布的数据,月度消费者价格指数(CPI)按年增长,11月为2.3%,高于10月的2.1%,也略高于市场预期的2.2%。

(澳大利亚CPI年同比图表,来源:澳大利亚统计局)
值得注意的是,修正均值作为核心通胀的重要指标也逐步降至年率3.2%,低于此前的3.5%,这是一个乐观的信号,符合澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)2%-3%的目标区间。如果澳储行发布季度报告,这一趋势预计将增强其对实现通胀目标的信心。
自2022年9月以来,澳储行将官方目标现金利率维持在4.35%,认为这一水平足以将通胀控制在目标范围内,同时保持就业增长。目前的现金利率相比疫情期间创下的0.1%历史低点,有了显著提高,反映出央行更为保守的政策立场。然而,由于经济活动放缓,澳储行上月末对其货币政策表现出了温和的态度。
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