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美元因“衰退担忧”走弱;黄金瞄准 $5,100 反弹

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2026 年 2 月 10 日

美元(USDX)再度承压,几乎回吐美联储会议后的全部涨幅。尽管鲍威尔在 1 月会议上释放“偏鹰派按兵不动”的信号,但市场当前已换了一副视角重新审视宏观环境。

疲弱的劳动力数据(Challenger 裁员、ADP 就业不及预期)叠加对美元信心的逐步流失,使投资者开始认为美元基本面正在恶化。与此同时,黄金则趁势走强,重新确立其作为对冲美元贬值及政策不确定性的核心避险资产地位。

美元展望:为何持续下行?

美元指数(USDX)已回落至 97.00 下方,未能守住此前确立的 97.50 突破位。

此前,强劲数据意味着“美联储或维持高利率”对美元构成利多;但当前市场叙事已经发生转变。尽管鲍威尔强调“6 月前不考虑降息”,但若后续劳动力数据持续走弱,市场认为美联储可能被迫更早转向宽松。

根据 CME FedWatch 工具,利率期货目前定价 4 月降息概率已升至 32%,明显高于两周前的 23.6%

美联储 4 月降息概率 | 来源:CME FedWatch

美联储 4 月降息概率 | 来源:CME FedWatch

与此同时,此前主导美元下行的“美元贬值”叙事可能再度回归。此前,美联储官员博斯蒂克曾表示:“我开始看到市场对美元信心出现动摇的迹象。”

USDX,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

从技术面来看,美元未能站稳 97.50 关键枢轴位,构成明显的技术性拒绝,暗示近期反弹更像是原有下行趋势中的修正行情。

当前关键水平位于 97.00。若价格持续运行在 97.00 下方,意味着短线趋势可能转为看空,并延续中期下行结构,美元指数存在下探 96.00 区域的风险。

多头需要重新收复 97.60,才能有效遏制跌势。在此之前,“反弹做空”仍是主导的短线策略。不过,在关键数据公布前,美元短期波动率或有所收敛。

黄金:避险买盘是否回归?

在昨日围绕 5,000 美元整理后,黄金重新走高,目前交投于 5,050 美元 附近。

美元走弱是推动金价回升的核心催化因素。同时,纳斯达克此前的震荡,以及日本大选后围绕高市早苗政策方向的不确定性,使部分资金重新配置至黄金,以对冲宏观与政策风险。

尽管如此,黄金的下一步走势仍需重点观察技术结构。

XAUUSD,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAUUSD,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

技术上,黄金此前在 4,700 美元 附近形成“更高的低点”,显示买盘正在逐步回流。但在此前经历大幅波动后,市场进入整理与再平衡阶段亦属正常。

短线来看,5,100 美元 为关键阻力位。若有效突破,该水平上方将打开通往 5,200 – 5,250 流动性区域的空间。

下方而言,5,000 美元 仍是重要分水岭。若短期内跌破该水平,金价可能继续维持区间震荡格局。

今日关注焦点

  • 美国零售销售:衡量消费者健康状况的关键指标。若数据疲弱,将进一步强化“经济衰退”叙事,并打压美元。
  • 美联储官员 Hammack 与 Logan 讲话:关注其是否对市场激进的降息预期进行反驳。若言论偏鸽(强调增长风险),美元可能面临进一步下行压力。

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