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美国CPI定调美联储政策预期,消费数据验证经济韧性

本周全球市场的交易逻辑将围绕”美国通胀是否继续回落”以及”消费者能否支撑经济软着陆”两大核心议题展开。周三的CPI数据将为美联储的降息路径提供关键指引,而周五的消费支出、GDP终值和消费者信心数据将共同描绘美国经济的第一季度开局图景。

美国2月纽约联储1年通胀预期

周一的美国2月纽约联储1年通胀预期将揭示消费者对通胀前景的心理预期。在美联储努力锚定价格稳定之际,上升的通胀预期可能使美联储实现通胀目标的努力复杂化,可能推迟降息预期并支撑美元。

美国2月成屋销售

周二的美国2月成屋销售数据将检验房地产市场在高利率环境下的韧性。成屋销售已连续数月徘徊多年低位,本次数据将揭示传统春季销售旺季是否显现复苏迹象。若销售数据出现企稳迹象,可能暗示房地产市场的最糟糕时期已经过去,为美元和房屋建筑商股票提供温和支撑。

美国2月CPI年率与月率

周三的CPI数据是本周当之无愧的市场”定调者”,当前市场正激烈博弈美联储首次降息的具体时机,任何核心CPI的黏性,尤其是服务业和住房成本分项,都将立即扼杀近期美联储转向的希望。

美国经济数据密集公布

周五美国第四季度GDP终值、1月个人收入与支出、3月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值。这些全面概括了美国消费者和整体经济的健康状况。个人收入与支出报告包含美联储偏好的通胀指标,PCE物价指数。若强劲的消费支出伴随黏性的PCE通胀将强化美联储”更高更久”的叙事。

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