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年初震撼犹存,来月展望如何?

贸易战、政治不确定性、债券利率上升与意外杀出的AI对手——四重冲击如何撼动市场,以及未来一个月的前景展望。

2025年第一季度对金融市场而言异常动荡,原因显而易见。投资者面对的并非某类单一重大事件,而是接连不断的冲击:全球贸易争端、美国政策新格局、欧洲债券利率骤升,以及一场出人意料的科技变局。这些力量相互叠加、彼此强化,将一个本就人心惶惶的年初演变为一段全面的市场焦虑期。

贸易战卷土重来——市场立刻感受到冲击

最大的导火线是2至3月间全球贸易紧张局势的迅速升温。美国推出新一轮大规模关税措施,欧盟、中国、加拿大等主要贸易伙伴随即以反制关税予以回击。

对普通人而言,关税或许听起来象是抽象的政策讨论,但其影响却是现实体感的:商品生产成本上升、供应链陷入混乱、企业投资和招聘意愿下降。对投资者来说,这直接导致股市遭受迅速而痛苦的价值重估,市场波动性急剧上升,大量资金涌入黄金等”避险”资产——这里是不确定性笼罩时的传统避风港。

美国新政府执政——笼罩市场的不确定乌云

雪上加霜的是,年初美国政局完成新旧交替。当一届政府在财政支出、监管政策和贸易立场上改弦更张,市场往往不会等到具体政策落地才作出反应——不确定性本身就足以令其躁动。

这是一个广为人知的规律:前路越模糊,投资者要求持有股票等风险资产的回报补偿就越高。这种需求以”估值压缩”的形式体现出来——通俗地说,就是股价相对于预期利润的比下降。那些高度依赖乐观未来预期的长期增长股,首当其冲承受了这一压力。

欧洲债券收益率飙升——火上浇油

2月另一个意外之处传来冲击:欧洲政府债券收益率急剧上扬。当债券收益率上升,意味着政府和企业的借贷成本增加,同时也拉高了投资者用于折算未来盈利的”贴现率”。

不妨这样理解:如果政府债券已能提供稳定且可观的回报,那么投资者就要求股票提供更高的回报,才值得承担其中的风险。因此,当收益率上升,股价通常会随之下跌以作补偿。这种机械式的联动关系,给大西洋两岸本已承压的股市再添一重压力。

新AI对手横空出世——改写科技格局

1月第四重冲击接踵而至,且性质迥异:一家此前鲜为人知的人工智能公司横空出世,推出了在性能上足以与行业巨头抗衡的技术,而成本却只是后者的零头。对于那些将重金押注于当红AI股票、深信少数几家公司将主导这一技术未来的投资者而言,这无异于当头棒喝。

市场对昔日巨头迅速予以惩罚。那些以不可撼动的市场领导地位为支撑、估值高企的科技股大幅下挫——投资者不得不重新审视,究竟谁才能最终赢得这场AI竞赛。

近期三大市场值得关注:美元、原油与黄金

在这多重冲击交叠的背景下,三类资产已成为研判未来一个月市场走向的关键风向标。

美元

美元近来强势反弹,突破关键技术位,扭转了此前的持续疲软态势。但经历如此强劲的涨势之后,短期内或将出现调整。预计未来一两周美元将有所回软,回撤至98.89至99.12区间测试支撑——这是继续上行前的一次健康修整。若该支撑位企稳,美元有望在月底前向100这一重要心理关口发起冲击。

美元指数日线图

美元指数日线图

布兰特原油

油价受战事刺激,一度触及近每桶119美元的极端高位,但市场随即强力反压。从高位遭遇的急剧回落来看,空方目前牢牢掌握主动权,后续仍有进一步下行空间。最大可能的情形是价格回落至100美元附近,届时买盘或将重新介入。不过,不要指望油价能迅速反弹至近期高点。更大概率的走势是:在经历如此剧烈波动的冲击之后,市场会进入一段磨底整理、横向震荡的阶段。

布兰特原油日线图

布兰特原油日线图

黄金

黄金的走势则更为复杂。在市场动荡期扮演避险角色后,黄金屡遭急速而剧烈的抛售,跌破多个关键技术支撑位,标志着近期动能出现实质性转变。跌幅之大使黄金在技术上呈现”超卖”状态,短线反弹值得期待。然而,这波反弹预计力度有限、持续时间短暂,大概率在重新站上4800美元之前便告终止。此后,一段震荡整理甚至再度考验近期低点的走势,将是任何持续性复甦到来之前更为可能的路径。

黄金日线图

黄金日线图

更宏观的视角

2025年初之所以令市场如此不安,并非任何单一事件所致,而在于多重动荡力量的同时汇聚。贸易摩擦、政策不明朗、债券利率上升与技术颠覆,任何一项单独出现都已足够棘手,而合力之下,它们形成了一个谨慎情绪与风险厌恶相互强化的反馈循环,重塑了投资者对增长、通胀乃至全球经济的整体预期。

未来数月究竟迎来回血还是持续动荡,将在很大程度上取决于上述断层线的演变走向——尤其是贸易谈判的结果以及战事与各国央行的政策取向。就目前而言,市场传递的讯息已清晰:唯一确定的,是不确定性本身。

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