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美股在关键位置面临压力;加密市场风险加剧

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2026年4月2日

本周四,全球市场正经历一场方向争夺的激烈博弈。随着美伊地缘政治危机持续笼罩宏观环境,风险情绪依然高度脆弱,使传统股市与加密货币市场均面临突发下行压力的风险。

美股:关键位置的多空拉锯

标普500与纳斯达克100目前正处于激烈的多空博弈之中。一方面,多头试图逢低买入;另一方面,空头则利用不断恶化的宏观基本面加大抛售力度。尽管日内偶有反弹,但整体前景目前仍明显偏空。

基本面压力对股市而言过于沉重。持续的美伊冲突维持了较高的地缘政治风险溢价,而能源价格的上涨则重新点燃通胀担忧,并强化了“不会降息”的市场预期。

随着滞胀风险上升,美联储被迫维持紧缩政策立场。这一环境推动美国国债收益率维持在高位,对未来企业盈利进行更高折现,并抽离支撑高估值所需的流动性。

标普500展望

SP500,日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

SP500,日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

从技术面来看,标普500已反弹至6,520–6,610这一关键多空分水岭区域。这一水平对于判断市场多空结构至关重要。

在基本面压力未明显缓解之前,除非中东局势出现明确转机或通胀风险显著降温,交易员仍可能选择在反弹中卖出。

若当前6,520水平失守,将打开更深层次结构性调整的大门,可能引发更广泛的股市下跌。

纳斯达克100展望

NAS100,H4 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

NAS100,H4 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

类似地,纳斯达克100的24,000区域同样是关键多空分界线。目前该水平正承受压力;在当前宏观背景下,若跌破该区域,可能引发新一轮下行,目标指向23,000甚至更低。

加密货币:BTC与ETH面临风险

整体“风险规避”环境正迅速蔓延至加密货币市场。比特币(BTC)与以太坊(ETH)等高贝塔、高波动资产正承受巨大压力,因机构资金正在回流传统避险资产。

BTCUSD,H4 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

BTCUSD,H4 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

若整体市场风险情绪持续恶化,BTC与ETH均面临技术性破位的重大风险。

交易员应密切关注日内关键突破与支撑水平。若当前约65,500美元附近的结构性支撑失守,可能触发连锁清算效应,导致价格大幅下跌。

相反,多头若要实现有效反弹,需要出现强劲且出乎意料的风险偏好回升,并重新站上70,000美元这一关键心理关口;在此之前,下行风险仍然占据主导。

今日关注

  • 美国初请失业金人数(美东时间8:30):衡量美国劳动力市场的重要周度指标。若数据意外上升,可能加剧滞胀担忧,并对股市及风险资产形成进一步压力。
  • 非农前市场仓位调整(全天):随着关键的非农就业数据即将于明日公布,预计市场将出现波动加剧及流动性缺口,机构投资者将调整仓位并对潜在风险进行对冲。

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