Important Information

This website is managed by Ultima Markets’ international entities, and it’s important to emphasise that they are not subject to regulation by the FCA in the UK. Therefore, you must understand that you will not have the FCA’s protection when investing through this website – for example:

  • You will not be guaranteed Negative Balance Protection
  • You will not be protected by FCA’s leverage restrictions
  • You will not have the right to settle disputes via the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS)
  • You will not be protected by Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS)
  • Any monies deposited will not be afforded the protection required under the FCA Client Assets Sourcebook. The level of protection for your funds will be determined by the regulations of the relevant local regulator.

Note: UK clients are kindly invited to visit https://www.ultima-markets.co.uk/. Ultima Markets UK expects to begin onboarding UK clients in accordance with FCA regulatory requirements in 2026.

If you would like to proceed and visit this website, you acknowledge and confirm the following:

  • 1.The website is owned by Ultima Markets’ international entities and not by Ultima Markets UK Ltd, which is regulated by the FCA.
  • 2.Ultima Markets Limited, or any of the Ultima Markets international entities, are neither based in the UK nor licensed by the FCA.
  • 3.You are accessing the website at your own initiative and have not been solicited by Ultima Markets Limited in any way.
  • 4.Investing through this website does not grant you the protections provided by the FCA.
  • 5.Should you choose to invest through this website or with any of the international Ultima Markets entities, you will be subject to the rules and regulations of the relevant international regulatory authorities, not the FCA.

Ultima Markets wants to make it clear that we are duly licensed and authorised to offer the services and financial derivative products listed on our website. Individuals accessing this website and registering a trading account do so entirely of their own volition and without prior solicitation.

By confirming your decision to proceed with entering the website, you hereby affirm that this decision was solely initiated by you, and no solicitation has been made by any Ultima Markets entity.

I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom
Roll Arrow
Ultima Markets Silver & Gold Trading Icon
Buy: 0.00
Sell: 0.00%

“万物行情”遭遇就业考验;原油面临库存冲击

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2026年1月7日

全球市场正定价于完美情景。昨日出现罕见的“万物行情(Everything Rally)” ,道琼斯、黄金和美元几乎同时上涨。投资者押注 “金发姑娘式” 局面:增长韧性不减(推动道指冲上49,000点),同时收益率下行提振黄金。

然而,这种乐观情绪在今日发布的ADP就业数据面前将迎来第一个重要现实检验。

“万物行情”与就业考验

昨日,道琼斯创历史新高,突破49,500点,而标普500与纳斯达克则在收盘时段加入上涨行列。反弹由资金轮动至“价值板块”与数据存储类股推动(如Western Digital与SanDisk等均因对AI数据中心需求的乐观预期而大涨约15%)。

当下市场普遍定价于“软着陆”。但真正风险可能从今天开始显现——ADP非农就业数据将成为首个试金石:

  • ADP预测:市场共识预期新增岗位约45,000个。
  • 市场反应:若数据大幅好于预期,将延续“万物行情”动能;反之,若低于40,000,可能支持黄金走高,但同时可能触发股市及美元对经济衰退的担忧重燃,并引发基于疲弱而非稳定的联储鸽派预期。

美元展望:耐心等数据

美元目前处于震荡状态,在 98.30 附近盘整。尽管联储的“鹰派轮换”提供了支撑,但市场在周五NFP确认劳动力市场强弱之前,仍对美元的强势买入保持谨慎,而今天的ADP数据则是前哨数据。

USDX,H4 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H4 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

技术面看,美元在 98.00 获得支撑,但在 98.40 下方承压,使美元陷入区间整理陷阱。短期关注 98.40 – 98.00 区间;若就业数据出现惊喜突破,则可能触发方向性走势。

黄金:风险溢价支撑依旧

尽管股市风险偏好上升(通常对黄金不利),贵金属仍顽强维持高位交投于 $4,500/盎司 附近。自“委内瑞拉冲击”以来,加上中东紧张局势持续,黄金避险需求依旧存在,导致黄金与股票走势出现脱钩。

展望:只要地缘政治头条成为主导方向,黄金的阻力最小路径仍然向上。但今日ADP数据的波动可能成为催化剂——若利润了结加速,黄金可能测试 $4,400。

XAU/USD,H1 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAU/USD,H1 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

近期价格与 4,500 阻力位 显示可能出现修正动作。若支撑在 4,450 维持不破,则仍维持多头趋势;若数据意外偏弱或出现意外,则黄金可能回测 $4,400 更深的调整水平,但整体上涨趋势仍然完整。

原油:“供应洪流” 与库存现实

原油是目前主要资产类别中承压最明显的,WTI原油在 $56.00 附近小心徘徊,再次测试多年低位支撑。

市场此前对特朗普声明定价预期“供应洪流”:称委内瑞拉将向美国转移3,000–5,000万桶受制裁的石油,收益将由华盛顿控制。交易者押注美国制裁将放松,委内瑞拉原油将重返市场。

UKOUSD,H4 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

UKOUSD,H4 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

现实检验落在今日EIA原油库存数据上。市场普遍预期库存增加(Build)。若报告显示库存减少(供应收紧),将反驳“供应过剩”叙事,并可能引发从当前超卖水平的急速反弹。

免责声明

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。

立即分享

  • Article Details
  • Article Details
  • Article Details

Thank you for visiting the Ultima Markets website. Please note that this website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing is permitted by law. Ultima and its affiliated entities do not operate in your home jurisdictions.

By clicking on ''Acknowledge'', you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website based on reverse solicitation principles, in accordance with the applicable laws of your home jurisdiction.